Weekend GamePlan for Nov. 7, 2026: Picks for Dwyer, River City, Pumpkin Pie
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The NFL season ends after the Super Bowl. And last I checked, the MLB calls it a year following the World Series. Horse racing? We’ve got end-of-season, championship-deciding races – and are right back at it the very next day.
A week out from Breeders’ Cup Saturday, some solid stakes action at both Belmont and Churchill.
Dwyer
Ted Noffey starts as the 8-5 favorite on David Aragona’s reliably accurate morning line. Finally. We heard rumblings of Ted Noffey’s return to action for quite some time before things really started ramping up. At one point, the Perryville on Oct. 17 at Keeneland seemed like the landing spot. Instead, it’s the Dwyer, which means Ted Noffey gets the double layoff line in Daily Racing Form past performances denoting a break of at least one year.
We’re talking about an undefeated champion here – but I have to play against Ted Noffey at this kind of price.
Ted Noffey was all about early development, a Saratoga debut winner who had the body and mind to handle route racing as a 2-year-old. Obviously, there’s a deep reserve of natural talent, too, but it very much remains to be seen if Ted Noffey is more than an early developer ahead of his class last year.
Sea Strike should vie for favoritism – might even be favored. Never thought he would get 1 1/4 miles in the Travers, and the cutback to a one-turn mile could work in his favor. To me, this is not assured. Wasn’t it the stretch to 1 1/8 miles around two turns in the Curlin that brought Sea Strike to a much higher level? Entirely possible the horse can run the same race at this much different trip, but I don’t want to find out at this price.
The pace looks hot, and I doubt the Dwyer is won from the front end, and with that in mind I entertained deeper cuts like Bravaro and, to a greater extent, White Smoke Rising. But I’m on Igniter here.
A one-turn mile – that’s what Igniter wants. He didn’t run badly in the 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby last out. The horse broke flat-footed and to me never looked fully comfortable. And – let us be kind – he did not exactly get the trip he needed. Too far back, and was that 10 wide into the homestretch, or just nine?
This is no doubt a tougher bunch than the Ellis Park Derby, but Igniter dominated that group. No idea why he fell so far back in the Maxfield, but he finished best in that race, and winner Deep Flame was on his way to finishing an excellent second in Englishman’s tour de force in the Allen Jerkens.
How many works logged since the Penn Derby? Six of them! Which says Igniter, who could get a perfect trip, is coming in hot to the Dwyer.
River City
Granted, Mercante, who first came fully to hand two winters ago at Turfway Park, might just have gone permanently past his best at age 6. But at something like his 8-1 morning line for the River City – which seems reasonable – I’ll guess he has at least one more high-level performance in him.
The circumstances should be ideal for him to produce it: Trainer Brian Knippenberg long has believed Mercante runs best with a target, but he is the lone speed here, and I want him to take an early lead and control the pace.
Mercante wants more than one mile, especially at this stage of his career, and I can only see the Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile last out at Keeneland as a tune-up for the River City. That seemed to be the plan a year ago, but Mercante started poorly in the 2025 River City and wound up far behind front-running winner Wolfie’s Dynaghost. This time, he can be the front-running winner.
Pumpkin Pie
Amalfi Drive has run one race among her 10 starts that suggests she can win the Pumpkin Pie Stakes. That came May 1, when she was lone speed in a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs and easily won a second-level allowance race. Saturday at Belmont Park, Amalfi Drive is the lone speed going a one-turn mile in the Pumpkin Pie – perhaps she can press her tactical advantage.
Amalfi Drive does have a little more to recommend her than that lone start. She was miscast as a two-turn horse, and if one separates out her routes and the one turf try, and accounts for some bad luck, Amalfi Drive starts to look more appealing than a 10-1 shot.
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