Weekend GamePlan for Nov. 28, 2020: Picks for Hollywood Derby, Golden Rod, Long Island

Stakes action this Thanksgiving weekend is appropriately socially distanced.

From New York to Kentucky to California – with a side dish of Maryland – there are tasty races from coast to coast Saturday. Del Mar offers a heaping helping of handicapping. We’ll start there with an excellent renewal of the Hollywood Derby.

Hollywood Derby

Smooth Like Strait, the best sophomore grass horse so far this year in California, and three East Coast invaders – Gufo, Decorated Invader, and Domestic Spending – figure to head the betting. All three have their merits but none has to win.

Smooth Like Strait’s vulnerability is stylistic – he is a very forward horse who doesn’t want to be restrained. His successful pressing trips, as in the Twilight Derby last out, have come from an outside position; here Smooth Like Strait has the first inside draw of his turf career. He faces a serious pace rival in Get Smokin, and several likely pressing types seem certain to close off any hope his rider might entertain of letting Get Smokin go and coming around for another clean outside run. Most likely, Smooth Like Strait must battle it out on the front end and see if he can hold off strong closers.

:: Want to get your Past Performances for free? Click to learn more.

Gufo would be my pick if he’d drawn better than post 13, and even from there I’d consider him at a better price, but I suspect this is the favorite despite the draw, and deservingly so, since he has been awesome. Gufo should be 5 for 5 in 2020 as some untimely late swerving cost him a victory in the Saratoga Derby Invitational. This colt stays, but also has a truly impressive turn of foot, yet his draw is going to test his talent. Looking as far back as Daily Racing Form’s database stretches, posts 8 through 14 have combined to win 29 of 509 Del Mar turf races at 1 1/8 miles, a brutal 5.6-percent strike rate. There is a real draw bias here.

Decorated Invader, Gufo’s Christophe Clement-trained stablemate, has post 10, slightly better, but he lacks the seasonal momentum Gufo possesses. This is a very talented colt, but one who was precocious and might not have developed much since early summer. His distance limitations showed at Saratoga, and while he got a ridiculously passive trip in the Hill Prince and was best there, I think he’s a miler at heart.

Domestic Spending was fortunate to beat Gufo at Saratoga and missed his most recent intended start. Even at lower odds and with a worse draw, I’d take Gufo.

Scarto is my pick. This plucky gelding, a private purchase earlier this year, appears to relish competition, not just in the afternoon, but in his recent morning dirt breezes, where he has been very eager to run down his workmates. Smooth Like Strait handled him in the Twilight Derby, but Scarto was shuffled back when a rank Field Pass made an early wide move on the backstretch, coming outside him, and then got meaningfully steadied before the half-mile pole. He gained nicely on Smooth Like Strait late in that race and has the tactical speed and athleticism to work out an inside stalking trip and get first run on Gufo at four or five times the price.

Golden Rod

Simply Ravishing already has started four times this year, and taking short prices in “afterthought” races like this – had she won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, no way this start happens – is nearly always a poor plan. Moreover, there is ample speed here to keep Simply Ravishing honest and give Clairiere a chance.

Trainer Steve Asmussen really shows confidence in this filly throwing her into a Grade 2 off only a debut win, but what a debut win that was. Horses are not supposed to win their first start, especially going two turns, with the challenging trip she had, and not only did she get up, Clairiere appeared to be cruising past the wire. Clairiere has the pedigree to be a star and could be one in the making while still offering a fair price in her stakes debut.

Long Island

In the interest of not impugning a rider who often is great, I’ll just suggest you watch Mutamakina’s trip in the Zagora for yourself. The filly was pounds the best on the day, showing in her U.S. debut that the flashes of true potential she showed in France might be made manifest this side of the Atlantic. She’ll have a fair pace in front of her in the Long Island and should mow these fillies down.