Weekend GamePlan for Nov. 23, 2019: Picks for Red Smith, Jean Lafitte, and Coronation Futurity

We’re still in the post-Breeders’ Cup North American stakes lull that’ll get busted up next week when Churchill comes with all its Thanksgiving-week stakes. Fair Grounds is getting started, the Cigar Mile card at Aqueduct is just around the corner in early December, and things will soon heat up at Gulfstream Park.

For now, though, we’re still left with slim pickings. The Red Smith in New York is a legitimately interesting race, but to get three possibly playable Saturday stakes, we’ll have to venture to little Delta Downs and north of the border to Woodbine.

Red Smith Stakes

March 3, 2018: Sadler’s Joy beat One Go All Go and Nessy in the Mac Diarmida Stakes at Gulfstream – the last time Sadler’s Joy visited the winner’s circle after a race. One Go All Go was in solid form at the time, but still a Grade 3 sort of horse at base, and Sadler’s Joy hardly bossed that bunch, winning by three-quarters of a length.

How do you feel about equine herd instincts? Most of the time, horses that stride clear and win operate outside the “natural” range of horse behavior. These are herd animals with DNA that compels them to find safety by sticking close to their peers, not running away from them. Some racehorses get beyond this better than others, and Sadler’s Joy, who now has two wins from his last 17 starts, seems more inclined to race alongside horses than draw away from them. Is this in part because he regularly has contested Grade 1 races and raced really strong competition? Sure. But if in the end a horse is intent on operating within the herd dynamic, a class drop like Sadler’s Joy takes here in the Grade 3 Red Smith Stakes means less.

To wrap up, then – I’m happy trying to beat Sadler’s Joy as a strong favorite Saturday.

Red Knight holds some appeal as he bounced back to his stronger spring form with a 12-furlong Belmont stakes win last out and, according to trainer Bill Mott, probably is doing even better now than he was then. French import Petit Fils has done some nice things in lesser races overseas and could turn out to be quite useful here, but I wonder if he’s quite good enough for this group fresh off the bench.

I’ll go with Marzo, who, to me, would be great value at anything close to his 10-1 morning-line price. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Mike Maker and owner drop high-end claim ($62,500 in this case) on turf horse, stretch horse out to longer distances, uncover graded-stakes horse. Marzo ran just fine off the claim, finishing second over one mile at Churchill, but stepped forward with the race of his life when Maker tried him at 1 1/2 miles in the Grade 3 Sycamore at Keeneland. He was much the best there, and looking at his pedigree – why not? There’s plenty of long-distance blood there, and Marzo, still just a 4-year-old, as a yearling fetched a million bucks at auction. Now, it’s his new owners who are cashing in.

Jean Laffitte

DRF’s Mary Rampellini reported Thursday that Sir Winsalot would be scratched from the Jean Laffitte Stakes, a one-mile Delta Downs race for 2-year-olds, and since that horse won handily last out at Keeneland, he was going to take a lot of action. Even in his absence, Sir Rick still should offer playable odds.

Sir Rick isn’t yet “fast” enough to win this race, but I think he can improve in his first start around two turns. Given his Lone Star debut, he wasn’t especially precocious, and I think he won second time out at Louisiana Downs on raw talent as much as anything. It’s his first-level allowance win over the Delta surface that really catches the eye, as Sir Rick, on the lead in the maiden win, made a powerful move through the short homestretch to win going away. He’s come back to post very lively local drills, and the guess is he copes just fine with the stretch to one mile. There’s plenty of pace to set things up for him, including a shorter-priced Steve Asmussen-trained stablemate.

Coronation Futurity

Tomcat Black got what looks like a test run for this rich restricted-stakes race when trainer Graham Motion shipped him into Woodbine from Maryland for a Sept. 15 maiden sprint. He performed encouragingly there at a distance likely short of his best. I won’t hold a sloppy-track one-turn-mile maiden loss at Laurel against him as the entire pattern seems geared to get Tomcat Black to this race. No surprise a Sam-Son homebred has a pedigree full of stamina to get the 1 1/8 miles, and the guess is he’s ready to come forward enough to at least threaten the shorter prices.