Weekend GamePlan for Nov. 16, 2019: Picks for River City Stakes, Delta Mile, Key Cents Stakes

Describing the North American stakes schedule for Saturday as sparse is an exercise in understatement.

It’s not just that there are only 11 stakes races on the calendar, but four of those are restricted to statebreds and six are for 2-year-olds.

Several of the 2-year-old races have short fields, including the Bob Hope at Del Mar.

Easily the most appealing race on the stakes schedule is the River City at Churchill, but even here there are complications since we’re talking about a mid-November turf course at a venue where racing was canceled Wednesday because of freezing temperatures. Lots of horses won’t handle grass like this, but we’ll try to find one that does.

River City

Trainer Mike Maker has three of the 10 entered in this nine-furlong grass race, and while I gave Space Mountain a test drive, in the end I couldn’t buy at the price. Mr. Misunderstood is listed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite, which makes playing against him appealing, but I believe Admission Office will go off as the chalk here. He’s coming out of the best races and has been unlucky at times this year, but I believe his trouble in the Shadwell Turf Mile was overstated. I covered that stakes for Daily Racing Form and interviewed Admission Office’s jockey, Jose Ortiz, just afterward. Ortiz was more than a bit peeved, saying he’d followed the wrong horse, Valid Point, who was ridden by his brother Irad Ortiz. Watching the replay a few times, however, it was Valid Point who found trouble while Admission Office, while a little short of room, didn’t seem to be going anywhere with alacrity. He’s won on yielding turf, but I don’t quite trust him at the price to power through what figures to be demanding Churchill turf.

This race feels open to big prices, and I’ll hope to pair one up in second with top selection Emmaus, who ticks several boxes here. He won a stakes race over a decent horse in April 2018 racing on heavy ground, and his company lines this year – which include Synchrony, El Tormenta, Curlins Honor – slot him in solidly with this group. Yes, he pulled a perfect trip winning last time at Keeneland, but he also won more comfortably than the bare margin of victory and can get another good trip here. Get Western surely leads but Emmaus can dip in right behind him or press a moderate pace, and if this turns into a sprint home, which I think it will, it mitigates some of the concern one might have about this horse staying nine furlongs.

Delta Mile

With the demise of the Delta Jackpot, I’m sure many of you don’t give any attention to Delta Downs, which is understandable to some extent. Yet the product there is fairly appealing since most of the races go with full fields of 10 and the bullring track configuration allows for a bevy of distances that require a wide range of skill sets. Besides the small oval with tight turns, Delta has a deep track surface that a lot of horses don’t handle, and half the battle handicapping is selecting horses that get over the track.

Stephen’s Answer appears to love Delta and can win the Saturday night feature, the $100,000 Delta Mile, at a fair price, though likely well below his 10-1 morning-line odds.

It’s interesting: Trainer Robertino Diodoro was a massive bet-against last season at Delta, especially the first part of the meet, but he has totally turned things around this season. Stephen’s Answer was claimed for a mere $7,500 on Aug. 30 at Canterbury Park but has become a new horse going to the front in two-turn Delta races. He ripped through two allowance conditions and, on a surface that has generally favored front-runners this week, might not ever look back if he makes the lead Saturday night.

Key Cents

Perhaps I’m overrating my video stride-analysis skills, but watching My Sassy Sarah race over turf – the only surface on which she’s yet competed during a three-start career – she doesn’t appear to possess obvious turf-slanted action. It’s a key question in the Key Cents, since My Sassy Sarah’s grass-sprint form is plenty good enough to win this New York-bred dirt sprint, especially if anyone can hook need-the-lead 2-1 morning-line favorite Time Limit on the engine.

My Sassy Sarah exits the Grade 3 Miss Grillo for this statebred restricted stakes and perhaps just as importantly cuts back to a sprint from a route. She was a sweet and easy turf sprint winner two back and it’s too early to pass judgment on how the offspring of young sire Summer Front might take to dirt racing.