Weekend GamePlan for Nov. 14, 2020: Picks for Mrs. Revere, James F. Lewis III, Desi Arnaz

With only 51 weeks to Breeders’ Cup 2021, its time to start looking at the early lists of potential runners, where the value comes, who might be the stars at Del Mar.

Just kidding.

No Breeders’ Cup talk for a good long while.

We head now into deep autumn, the Cigar Mile, all the November stakes at Churchill Downs, Northern horses massing in Southern winter quarters.

Quiet week on the stakes front, but I’ve scraped together three plays, very socially distanced in Maryland, Kentucky, and California.

Mrs. Revere

Came into this thinking Hendy Woods could be the one, since she drops from the Grade 1 QE II while others are out of the Valley View, the alternative race at Keeneland for 3-year-old turf fillies not quite up to QE II snuff. Maybe Hendy Woods didn’t care for the Keeneland course, and she has run well over the lawn at Churchill, but her performance last month, where she pulled too hard on the first turn, left me chilly, and she’s been on the go for the better part of a year.

A year ago, Princess Grace wasn’t close to beginning her racing career. That came at Colonial Downs in August, and after winning there and posting a solid but unspectacular Monmouth allowance score, Princess Grace rewarded her connections’ confidence with a fine second in the Valley View. At the eighth pole, it didn’t look like she’d be second – Princess Grace looked like a sure winner.

She’d come roaring off the turn into the homestretch, flashing some serious acceleration from the three-sixteenths pole to the eighth pole, going well clear of the field. Two things, I think, then happened: First, she’d made the front so easily that Princess Grace, racing for just the third time, lost focus and waited on rivals. It’s also possible the jockey pulled the trigger slightly too soon, that her run isn’t quite that long.

Saturday, I think it’s she that takes up a tracking position just outside and behind likely lone speed Positive Danger. From there, her rider can assert some control over rail-drawn Hendy Woods, who’s probably headed for a pocket trip, and get first run on Stunning Sky, the filly who came very late and wide to nip her at Keeneland.

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James F. Lewis III

Sloppy-track debut wins should always be held up to careful scrutiny lest one give too much credit to a mere mudlark, but this danger arises more with front-running victories, and Xtreme Mayhem did not win like that first time out.

What he did was race near the back of the field to the half-mile pole, cruise into contention around the far turn while racing wide, and take command of a Laurel maiden sprint with a fifth furlong in a zippy 12.03 seconds.

This is the same sort of trip Xtreme Mayhem can pull from this outside post as he returns to action on fairly short rest in the $100,000 James F. Lewis III Stakes for 2-year-olds at six furlongs. In the debut win, Xtreme Mayhem raced somewhat greenly, wandering to the outside after he’d swooped to the front, and to be honest, this jockey is not a huge help controlling a mount, but she is competent enough to repeat the trip that just won a maiden race.

Xtreme Mayhem – a husky, powerful colt – stands a good chance of running at least as well on a fast track as he did in the slop. And a stat lends further confidence: Trainer Mac Robertson the last five years with second time-starting 2-year-olds in stakes races is 3-2-2 from eight runners (the other horse finished fourth).

Desi Arnaz

I assume that Private Mission, who won in a jog first out at even-money, will be all the rage with the bettors in this 2-year-old filly stakes over 6 1/2 furlongs. That’s fine, and she can win. Her two recent workouts look good on paper but I was less taken with them on video, and her draw in post 2 inside other serious speed should lead to a more challenging trip than the outside-pressing run last time.

Plum Sexy holds some appeal at double-digit win odds. Obviously, she’ll have to transfer that turf form to dirt, and the maiden field she beat was, shall we say, meek. But man, did she jump on the leaders in a hurry that day, and the lone workout video I could find suggests she moves equally well on dirt as grass. If she can get a true pace at which to run, I expect her to get involved late.