Weekend GamePlan for May 8, 2020: Picks for Man o' War, Peter Pan, Santa Barbara

It’s comeback day at Belmont.

Harvey’s Lil Goil, who closed out a bi-surface 3-year-old campaign with an excellent Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare turf third last fall, returns in the Grade 3 Beaugay. So does Civil Union, fifth in the Filly and Mare Turf, and Irish import Lemista, who bears the colors of Peter Brant and starts for trainer Chad Brown, potent circumstances for sure.

Those are all very nice horses, but the Grade 1 Man o’ War boasts a stronger field as the best race on a quiet Saturday of American racing, the exhalation after the Derby and before the Preakness.

Man o’ War

Let the record show I’m a strong Gufo supporter. Was slow to warm to the colt last summer, but by year’s end was convinced he could be the best 1 1/4- to 1 1/2-mile turf horse in North America during 2021. Gufo, preparing for this return run, has breezed steadily at Payson Park for trainer Christophe Clement, but Clement over the last five years has just one winner from 21 turf-route, graded-stakes runners returning from a break of four months or longer. Surely the goal is the June 5 Manhattan, and Gufo, thanks to goofy allowance conditions, gives from four to six pounds despite never having faced older horses.

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Sovereign is listed as morning-line favorite at 8-5, a tough price to accept on a 5-year-old making his North American debut following a 5 1/2-month layoff. Yes, this is Chad Brown, and we hear the typical Chad buzz you’d expect from a horse who won the Irish Derby, but that victory came nearly two years ago. During a winless 2020, Sovereign was given a look in a two-mile race and then sent on the road to Bahrain, where he lost to two rivals lacking any semblance of top-class form. The two-mile thing holds importance; this 11-furlong trip looks short of his ideal distance. Sovereign can win without me.

Ziyad looks fine, but he, too, looks like a 1 1/2-mile horse, and that late-2020 form is more Grade 2 1/2 than Grade 1. Channel Cat bounced back to a better level despite a less-than-ideal journey last out at Keeneland. I could see getting involved at the likely price, but I’ll try Field Pass to win.

Field Pass’s dam and second dam were sprinters, but I view them as outliers in a more generally stamina-leaning pedigree. I’m interested in seeing what this 4-year-old, by 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid, has to offer in this first trip over a marathon distance (by U.S. standards) after having proven himself at 1 1/8 miles. His Maker’s Mark Mile in April showed a horse who had wintered well and returned an improved animal, and in that race he mainly was out-quicked in upper stretch, staying on solidly after being passed. Field Pass has been in all manner of fast-paced contests and might make a break for the front at some point here with Luis Saez taking over riding duties.

Peter Pan

Wolfie’s Dynaghost went into hiding following his career debut last fall, but he’s finally back in action and can win the Peter Pan in his second career start.

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Not only did Wolfie’s Dynaghost comfortably beat subsequent Gotham Stakes winner Weyburn first out, he did so for a barn that rarely wins with first-timers and over a seven-furlong distance likely short of his best; this is a half-brother to Sadler’s Joy, comfortable at 1 1/2 miles on turf. I appreciated his gallop-out last fall, really liked the video of his most recent five-furlong drill, and even if Risk Taking passes this for the Preakness, Wolfie’s price still ought to be fair.

Santa Barbara

Neige Blanche’s best overseas race came at this 1 1/2-mile trip and in it she beat a real horse, Flighty Lady. But since a perfectly adequate American debut in the Del Mar Oaks, this filly mainly has spun her wheels. It’s hard to get in her corner at a relatively short price, and if potential favorite Tapwater were such a great distance prospect, why in seven turf starts has she been tried at nothing longer than one mile?

The Santa Barbara looks ripe for a new stakes player and Go Big Blue Nation is that filly. She’s awakened in recent starts with a step up in trip, and this first try over 1 1/2 miles, which comes with a noteworthy rider change, gives her even more time to wind up her strong finish.