Weekend GamePlan for May 22, 2021: Picks for Santa Maria, Seek Again, Honeymoon

New York and California, California and New York – these always have been the pillars of American racing, and all the best stakes action on a quiet Saturday in May takes place on the two coasts. Let’s have a look.

Santa Maria

I’m surprised to find the five-horse Santa Maria leading this short parade, but since I really like Ce Ce to hand As Time Goes By a minor upset, here we are.

Ce Ce wasn’t even favored last month when she met the Bob Baffert-trained Happier in an allowance race, and the assumption is that she’s second choice in this filly-and-mare contest with a meaningful gap to the favored Baffert charge As Time Goes By. There is a chance Ce Ce won’t run in the Santa Maria. Trainer Michael McCarthy said he might scratch her to run in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Belmont on June 5.

This isn’t a case of me being strictly against As Time Goes By so much as actively liking Ce Ce while playing the value game. As Time Goes By hasn’t held betting value her entire career, including when she was 19-10 in the Beholder Mile, where Swiss Skydiver comfortably handled her, and that’s not changing now.

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One thing about Swiss Skydiver – she’s easily the best horse As Time Goes By has faced. Look at the competition As Time Goes By has met in her wins, which doesn’t take a lot of work since This Tea, runner-up last out in the Santa Margarita, also has an entry here. Nothing against This Tea, but she’s not only N1X-allowance eligible 12 races into her career, she finished fifth her last two tries in such races.

As Time Goes By picks up six pounds off her Santa Margarita win while giving four to Ce Ce and cutting back to 1 1/16 miles from what might be her optimal distance, 1 1/8 miles.

Ce Ce, moreover, easily is the more accomplished racehorse, albeit in part because she’s had more opportunity than As Time Goes By. I’d argue that after a powerhouse Beholder Mile last spring immediately followed by a ship to Arkansas and a really taxing race to win the Apple Blossom, Ce Ce never was the same during 2020.

Physically, the filly has filled out remarkably since she displayed serious ability in her career debut at age 3, and after outworking Grade 1 turf horse Smooth Like Strait, she turned in an excellent but not especially demanding comeback run April 17.

She was under a hammerlock working strongly with the high-level dirt male Rushie on May 8, came back with a bullet six furlongs, and in spring 2020 ran the best figure of her life second after a layoff racing at Santa Anita, the very circumstances of this start 14 months later.

Seek Again

It’s never too late to change – or so we’d like to believe. I’m betting that at age 5, Delaware is a changed horse.

Ability never was the issue with Delaware, who came to America for a 2020 campaign with encouraging French credentials. Application of that ability during a race has proven a greater challenge, with Delaware mixing flat performances and races in which he pulled far too hard, never relaxing, such as the Artie Schiller last November. You can see trainer Chad Brown tinkering, trying to get more out of Delaware, removing blinkers one race, putting them right back on.

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Finally, in the April 10 Danger’s Hour, his first start without Lasix since his North American debut, and first ever with Manny Franco on his back, Delaware applied himself. He tried to get strong during the early stages but eventually melted into Franco’s hands before delivering a spectacular finish (final quarter 22.60) to run down Rinaldi, who looked a sure winner at the furlong grounds.

If Delaware can repeat that performance, and I’m betting he can, he can win two in a row. Get Smokin figures loose on the lead, but his form, outside the Hollywood Derby, looks worse now than it did going into his dud (no Lasix) at Keeneland. Decorated Invader appears to have matured early, and while Flavius should be formidable, Delaware can outfinish him at a better price.

Honeymoon

Odds-on favorite Going Global could simply prove too much filly for this group, but I’ll see if Golden can post an upset. Golden was too close to the pace March 6 in the China Doll and runs her best when held up awaiting a stretch rally. Last out, she had a tougher trip than Madone, likely second choice here, and on pedigree, I love the stretch-out from four one-mile starts to nine furlongs.