Weekend Gameplan for May 2, 2020: Picks for Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Handicap, and English Channel

It has been awhile since we’ve had content to fill this space. National stakes races have been practicing proper social distancing over the last six weeks or so, but finally we’re out of lockdown – at least for this first Saturday in May, when all eyes are on Oaklawn Park.

Arkansas Derby, 2nd division

With Shooter’s Shoot out of the first division of the split Arkansas Derby, Charlatan should make the lead and roll to victory, but he’ll be an odds-on favorite, and with just a touch of concern lingering, I can’t use him in this space. Watching his works, Charlatan has improved the characteristic that will make or break his ability to win at distances of 1 1/8 miles and beyond – the ability to switch off and relax. He’s not all the way there yet, but circumstances should allow him to win even if he’s overaggressive.

Division 2 features another Bob Baffert-trained monster in Nadal, who won’t be as high as his 5-2 morning-line odds but will be longer than Charlatan. I can understand trying to beat Nadal. He’s a fast horse and there’s other speed. His Beyer Speed Figures don’t stand out. He hasn’t raced farther than 1 1/16 miles. But Nadal has counters to all those concerns.

His debut figure was plenty fast, and Baffert, for whatever reason, just eased him through his second start – a race to get past and use as a building block. As for the Rebel, there’s no way an early-season 3-year-old should have won that race under Nadal’s circumstances. He was under the gun early from No Parole, a tough sprinter who returned with a sharp allowance win last week, and then from talented American Theorem. Those two wound up finishing a mile behind, and in fact every horse anywhere near the pace fell apart, which is how massive longshot Excession managed to finish second. Yet there at the finish was Nadal, still standing.

Nadal’s camp only employed the Rebel tactics because he had post 1 on a sloppy track – no time to take back and experiment. I’ve no doubt from having watched all of Nadal’s post-Rebel works that he’ll rate just off the pace. Baffert has been breezing him from farther and farther behind workmates, and not only does Nadal possess an off switch, he has shown an excellent turn of foot to run those workmates down. I think we’re going to see something special from Nadal here – perhaps from both Baffert horses.

Oaklawn Handicap

This is a very, very interesting edition of Oaklawn’s leading older-horse dirt-route fixture; there are many worthy win candidates. I nearly sided with Mr Freeze, who does figure to go off lower than his 6-1 morning line. Mr Freeze doesn’t truly want to go as far as this nine-furlong trip, and while I can see him gutting out a win with the right tracking tactics, he’s almost certainly going to get wobbly the final 100 yards.

Improbable, even if he falls into a decent journey from post 14, looks most effective at 1 1/16 miles and less.

On the other hand, the distance falls short of the 1 ¼ miles Tacitus and Combatant seem to need for their best. Tacitus winds up here because his intended major target, the Dubai World Cup, got canceled. As for Combatant, I’ll treat the Santa Anita Handicap as a Grade 2-minus dressed in Grade 1 clothing.

I’m going back to By My Standards, who came through for me in the New Orleans Classic last out. Skeptics will rightly note that By My Standards meets far stronger competition in this race than he’s ever beaten before, but this lightly raced 4-year-old still ought to be able to improve. The New Orleans Classic was only his second start following a nine-month layoff, and trainer Bret Calhoun has been taking the long view with this colt all year. He can settle into a comfortable stalking position without traffic from this draw. By My Standards is one of the best work horses in North America, and he appears to be breezing as well as ever.

English Channel

Ever Dangerous was 14-1 in his debut and the hope is he’s overlooked again breaking from post 12 while stepping straight into stakes in his second start. This colt showed rare professionalism first time out, switching on and off as his rider asked, and he has plenty of gears. He was ridden hard in upper stretch but geared down late and galloped out like a horse with gas still in the tank. His price figures to make tougher competition and a tricky post acceptable risks.