Weekend GamePlan for May 14, 2022: Picks for Peter Pan, Vagrancy, Beaugay

Five stakes races that drew a total of 32 entrants isn’t great, but Belmont Park nonetheless stands front and center on this Saturday between Derby and Preakness.

We’ll take a closer look at the Peter Pan, a plausible prep for the Belmont, but likely will be sitting out the only Grade 1 in North America on Saturday, the Man o’ War.

Yibir will be favored there, deservedly so, although Gufo did look in his lone start this year like a horse who might finally have grown up. He’s somewhat handier than Yibir and might get the jump at a longer price, but I couldn’t quite get there with Gufo. I came closer to getting there with Highland Chief, who had a lost 2021 season but kept excellent company the year prior. He finished fast making his American debut last out in a race too short for him, a pure prep, and has the tactical speed to get first run on the two favorites. The concern, though, is whether Highland Chief is quite good enough.

Peter Pan

I’m high on SoCal shipper Set Sail, especially if the morning line is accurate and he’s something in the 7-2 range.

Yes, Set Sail rises sharply in class off two maiden races, but he’s been tackling tough older horses at Santa Anita, albeit while getting weight. Elector, who won Set Sail’s debut, came right back with a sharp allowance-race win that produced a 95 Beyer. Set Sail’s trip in that seven-furlong debut wasn’t easy, either, as he was steadied off heels approaching the half-mile pole and stuck inside trying to make a run at Elector, tiring late as closing American Admiral passed him to get second. Four-year-old American Admiral returned to win a $150,000 maiden-claimer with a 91 Beyer.

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Stretched to a two-turn mile second out, Set Sail broke sharply from an inside post and dominated – just what I expect in the Peter Pan. The colt won with so much in the tank last time and has an efficient way of going that, combined with his pedigree, strongly suggests he’ll enjoy the stretch from one mile to 1 1/8 miles. Trainer Richard Mandella over the last five years has eight starters that went from a maiden win into a dirt-route graded stakes race. One of them was 65-1, a no-hoper; the other seven went 3-0-1, none finishing worse than fifth.

Vagrancy Handicap

Bella Sofia obviously is the most accomplished horse among five fillies and mares entered in the Vagrancy Handicap, but Miss Brazil, 3-1 on the line compared to Bella Sofia’s 4-5, feels like the right play on the day.

The two met last June in the Jersey Girl and it easily could be argued that while Bella Sofia finished a head in front of Miss Brazil, Miss Brazil was the superior horse that afternoon. Miss Brazil broke through the gate and had to be led back around and reloaded, never a good thing, and then got away slowly, taking her out of her preferred style. She still made a strong run at Bella Sofia, who was getting two pounds, as late-running Australasia swept past both horses to win.

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Miss Brazil tailed off and went to the sidelines last summer while Bella Sofia’s star rose, but here Bella Sofia makes her first start since November while Miss Brazil has the benefit of a solid comeback run. Miss Brazil gets a very meaningful six pounds from Bella Sofia and with Frank’s Rockette (Flavien Prat adding to her general appeal) taking win money, Miss Brazil ought to be a fair price.

Beaugay

Rougir is the big name in the Beaugay, making her first start for trainer Chad Brown, who, once again, is absolutely loaded with excellent turf-route fillies and mares. Rougir’s morning-line odds of even money feel about right, but what I see in this French import is a filly who wants to run 1 1/4 miles and has done all her best work over soft and heavy ground. The Belmont course at worst will be “good” on Saturday and the Beaugay is run over 1 1/16 miles.

It’s Brown’s second runner Lemista who better suits those conditions, gets four pounds from Rougir, and will be a considerably longer price in the win pool. Lemista’s best race in a truncated 2021 campaign came when she raced fresh, as she does here, and the turn of foot she showed in that paceless renewal of the Beaugay was plenty strong to get her home Saturday.