Weekend GamePlan for March 7, 2020: Picks for Santa Anita Handicap, Tampa Bay Derby, Kilroe Mile

Weekend GamePlan has gone from having too few stakes races from which to choose to finding too many.

Can’t get to the Gulfstream races (like Archidust in the Silks Run, race 9) or Oaklawn (Wendell Fong in the Hot Springs, race 8), and there are playable races at Tampa Bay Downs (Outburst in the Tampa Oaks) beyond the main event. The Gotham looks juicy (Untitled is the selection), and Santa Anita’s stakes came up competitive, but since I favor short-priced Authentic in the San Felipe, we’ll pass on the SoCal 3-year-olds for now.

Santa Anita Handicap

Gift Box plays on his home court here and he’s a tough old horse at home. Yes – old. Gift Box is a 7-year-old and while he’s still got spring in the legs, it’s easier to see him running worse than in the Dec. 28 San Antonio Stakes – which yielded a career-best 107 Beyer Speed Figure – than running right back to that figure. From a pace viewpoint, Gift Box doesn’t need to lead but sure wants to race close, and that could leave him vulnerable late if things unfold the way they might. The guess is Midcourt will be allowed to go off toward the front, but the presence of turf-to-dirt Brown Storm, who ran effectively on a fast turf pace in his most recent start, should quicken the tempo.

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There’s little doubt that Endorsed requires front-end help to have a chance at Gift Box, but at the expected price, I’ll guess he gets it. What Endorsed also gets is an 11-pound weight gap between him and Gift Box, and even if you’re not a big weights person, that’s considerable over 1 1/4 miles.

Endorsed has flashed talent from the start of his career, and Mucho Gusto’s recent form has cast a more favorable light over the 2019 Travers, where Endorsed ran the fastest middle half-mile and still was finding a good stride the final 50 yards. He was hard-ridden to sustain a long run in his Gulfstream comeback race before being eased across the wire after making the front and ought to have gotten plenty out of that race.

Video of a gallop he had at Santa Anita this week showed a horse comfortable on that surface, and while Endorsed might need one more race to hit a peak, I’m still endorsing him in the Big Cap.

Tampa Bay Derby

There are some questionable morning lines on the Tampa Bay Derby card, and here’s hoping Sole Volante gets to something like 3-1 rather than the listed 2-1 odds since he’s a likely winner of the Tampa Bay Derby.

Sole Volante’s pedigree suggests turf over turf, but after an encouraging third in the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man, his dirt debut, he improved going two turns to smack talented Independence Hall in the Sam Davis Stakes, which he won with speed to spare. Sole Volante got a favorable pace setup in the Sam Davis and there’s a strong chance he gets another one Saturday.

Trainer Patrick Biancone has employed the same training tactic he used for Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Ete Indien, giving Sole Volante his major work for this test on grass, and Sole Volante looked very good doing that.

Frank E. Kilroe Mile

Let’s get this out of the way: If Got Stormy runs to her best 2019 form, she’s absolutely winning the Kilroe Mile, but despite the blazing works since her flat performance at odds of 1-5 in the Endeavor Stakes, my guess is she won’t. Got Stormy had an excellent but taxing campaign last year, and going back to California for the Matriarch, while successful, might have put her over the ledge. We’ll see.

River Boyne figures second choice here, and if he can repeat his last-out performance in the Thunder Road he’s formidable. River Boyne, though, got a dream trip in the Thunder Road and hit his peak in the race before this Grade 1. I’m figuring on regression and will take a shot with River Boyne’s stablemate Sellwood.

A move to Kentucky last summer starkly interrupted an otherwise generally improving form arc for Sellwood, who showed talent early in his career. He hit a new level back in SoCal during the Del Mar fall meet and finally put everything together Jan. 20 in a course and distance allowance win, from which the place horse emerged to score at the same level with a 100 Beyer.

Sellwood displayed a fine turn of foot once into the clear last time, and if they go quick enough, which they should, he can get home again. The SoCal turf mile division has been chaotic for years now – here’s hoping that continues.