Weekend GamePlan for March 6, 2021: Picks for Frank E. Kilroe Mile, Santa Anita Handicap, Busher Invitational

Page through your memory indices and recall where things stood in March 2020. Racing-wise things were truly crazy, whole populations of horses stranded at tracks, unable to ship, race meets winking out and going dark mid-season. Horse people had no idea what coming months might bring. Nothing was certain; anything seemed possible.

A year later, racing is back to seasonal rhythms. Spectators are trickling into stands, the Triple Crown trail is snaking toward spring, and stakes races are piled atop one another coast to coast on Saturday.

Racing life, one might say, is relatively good.

And how good is Life Is Good? We’ll know more in the San Felipe, where one of the early favorites for the Derby gets his second two-turn test. I’m not playing the race. Life Is Good was life and death to hold off inferior (though talented) stablemate Medina Spirit in his route debut, but comparing works before that race and recent drills, one can see the colt is learning to be a racehorse, not merely a runner. Dream Shake has raw ability to make things interesting but the trainer has next to no experience making this maiden sprint to route stakes move.

The Tampa Bay Derby looks to me like crayon scribbles, not past performances. Have at it and I will root for your play.

The Hillsborough on the Tampa undercard has drawn a pithy field; interested, but not touting a play there, and the same goes for the Gotham, featured on an Aqueduct card with substance.

A good day’s racing all around. Feels even a little bit like normal.

Frank E. Kilroe Mile

Probably the featured Santa Anita Handicap should lead the three plays, but the Kilroe Mile is the best race so far this year in America.

:: Get Brad Free’s Betting Strategies for Saturday’s card at Santa Anita

Ride a Comet is the 7-2 morning-line favorite (I’m dubious he’s the chalk) and did look good when well bet off strong works winning the Tropical Park Turf, which also produces Casa Creed for this race. I’m rating that race a cut below what will be required here. The Florida shipper that most appeals is Social Paranoia, who got the wrong trip in the Pegasus (he can’t sustain a pressing trip over a distance that far) and could have a late say if the timing works.

I loved Hit the Road in the Thunder Road, where he ran lights-out, and while he pulled a perfect trip in a short field, his finish was all controlled power; he can improve in the Kilroe. Will Smooth Like Strait (possibly overbet facing older stakes rivals for the first time) go with Flying Scotsman? If not, and he sits in the pocket, the trip could turn tricky for Hit the Road, who does have gears to get out of spots.

I’ll dig a level deeper and try Count Again. I’ve little doubt Count Again is capable of winning the Kilroe, the obvious question being what went wrong when he was eased in the San Gabriel. I’ve no idea and will toss the race, focusing instead on sensational recent works. This horse ran well over longer trips last season, but going all the way back to his Keeneland maiden win (do watch it), he has shown the turn of foot to be a top miler. Let’s see if he can produce.

Santa Anita Handicap

I’ll start by saying I’m a Maxfield fan. The colt has done nothing wrong and has the look of a top horse. But the morning-line odds, 8-5, confirmed my thought that people are a little out in front of their skis here. The field he overwhelmed in his lone Grade 1 win did not prove out, and while he has run well enough in his two starts at Fair Grounds, those performances don’t merit the low price here.

Idol, with his huge, bounding stride, should love his first try over 1 1/4 miles, and I’ll take him to win the Big Cap. The dynamics were all against him in the San Pasqual, and at 1 1/16 miles, the San Antonio just was short of his trip. Would love to see new rider Joel Rosario place him forwardly and let his stamina shine.

Busher Invitational

Just six runners but the price still might be right on The Grass Is Blue. Yes, she won the Busanda over a two-turn nine furlongs, but she pulled for her head early (blinkers on) and didn’t run to the wire like a filly who truly wanted the trip. I like her cutting back and don’t trust either of the short-priced speeds, Miss Brazil and Mo Desserts, both of whom figure to go hunting the lead.