Weekend GamePlan for March 28, 2020: Picks for Florida Derby, Sand Springs Stakes, Sanibel Island Stakes

Who knows how much longer racing is going to keep going in the face of social distancing and stay-at-home, so let’s enjoy it while we have it – and there’s plenty to enjoy Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Sometimes these mega multi-stakes days present as overkill. Not this one. The very first stakes, the $100,000 Cutler Bay for 3-year-old turf horses, could easily have come up allowance-like, but this race is excellent for the level and sets the tone for the card.

It wasn’t easy to just pick three races, but here they are.

Curlin Florida Derby

Sure, it’s a full field, but how many of these horses can you really imagine winning? I could make some sort of case, from the rail out, for five: Disc Jockey, Gouverneur Morris, Tiz the Law, Independence Hall, and Ete Indien.

Florida Derby: News, contenders, and videos

Disc Jockey will be the longest price in this group. He’s never been in a two-turn race or a real stakes, but he’s lightly raced, has a progressive pattern, caught a front-running winner who never came back last time, and is trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., he of the $5.08 graded stakes ROI. I think he’s probably not good enough, but at the price, he’s usable, and I’d far rather take a flier on him at longer odds than the hyped Gouverneur Morris, who has looked no more than decent despite reputedly being a good horse.

Taking a positive position on Independence Hall now that his shine has dulled (and his price goes up) holds some appeal, but his workouts show a horse that still hasn’t wrapped his mind around the task at hand, and for me, the nine-furlong distance is the deal breaker. The suspicion is he’s rated here to try and help him stay, which would aid the horse I do like.

Tiz the Law no doubt dominated Ete Indien in the Holy Bull, but I’m going with Ete Indien to turn the tables. Trainer Barclay Tagg has said everything had gone perfect with Tiz the Law since the Holy Bull, but that’s not quite true since he missed some time and work with what was termed a minor foot problem in February. He did blow the doors off capable older horse Realm in a team workout March 15, but his March 22 solo drill was less easy on the eye. Maybe it meant nothing, but Tiz the Law cocked his head to the right in upper stretch and wasn’t quite striding the same way he had the week before. Moreover, while Tiz the Law’s Holy Bull was very good, it also stands out to some extent from his other three starts, and he’s not certain to repeat it at a longer distance. At a very short price, he can be taken on.

Despite having raced three times coming into the Holy Bull, same as Tiz the Law, Ete Indien seemed farther behind in terms of being a dirt-route horse, and he did attempt to battle back after Tiz the Law, with all the momentum, swept past. Ete Indien has continued working with aplomb for trainer Patrick Biancone, and with a decent amount of straightaway before the first turn, the guess is he can drop in for position if he doesn’t make an outright lead. Ete Indien, who should stay, was shying from something at the finish last time and still has room to improve, and he can do so at what might turn out to be a fair price.

Sand Springs

Here’s hoping bettors give more heed to the fact that Zofelle finished only fifth last time rather than dissecting how she finished fifth. The Fair Grounds turf for the Albert Stall Memorial was strongly biased toward inside front-runners, and Zofelle could not have raced more directly against the grain of the course. She made a huge turn move while very wide and sustained it to yards before the wire, and to make her look better, the Stall winner returned with another $100,000 stakes win March 21. The cut back to one mile is a plus, and Zofelle, much better drawn now, overcame a very tough trip to win nicely two starts ago.

Sanibel Island

Walk in Marrakesh won’t be a long price in this one-mile, 3-year-old filly turf stakes, but she still looms a more likely winner than her odds. She raced a touch overeagerly in her long-layoff comeback run last time and had a tougher trip in that Tampa race than the well-regarded, front-running winner. The race figures to have taken off her edge, and Walk in Marrakesh, who has tactical speed, just looks like a better horse than her listed-stakes rivals.