Weekend GamePlan for March 21, 2020: Picks for New Orleans Classic, Tom Benson Memorial, and San Simeon Stakes

Would it be nice to have a Weekend GamePlan play in easily the weekend’s biggest race, the $1 million Louisiana Derby? Of course, of course. And make no mistake: This is a very appealing race from a “solve the really hard puzzle” sort of perspective.

Unlike some recent important 3-year-old stakes (almost slipped and called them “Derby preps”), the Louisiana Derby lacks standouts, unless you go all-in on Wells Bayou’s 96 Beyer Speed Figure from the Southwest Stakes. I’m not questioning the number, but it is an outlier in his form and Wells Bayou’s chances likely hinge on what happens with Ny Traffic, who already had speed and now races with blinkers added and sharp recent works. The guess here is Ny Traffic comes out running and both determined front-enders wind up cooked.

Silver State has a poor draw, but in the scenario outlined above could fall into a decent trip. His work pattern since a solid Risen Star performance suggests trainer Steve Asmussen finally has tightened the screws on this bulky colt. Still, I picked a big price with some hidden form, Lynn’s Map, on top in the Louisiana Derby, but can’t endorse him fully enough to use in this space. And while Synchrony is in trouble from a poor draw in the Muniz Memorial, that race could fall instead to Instilled Regard, who might be the favorite. Still, two other races at Fair Grounds caught the eye, and there’s a near lock at Santa Anita.

New Orleans Classic

By My Standards took a while to put things together and win a maiden race, but when he started developing last winter and spring the improvement came rapidly, evidenced by his victory in the Louisiana Derby immediately following the belated maiden score. His workouts for the Kentucky Derby were off-the-charts visually impressive, his chance in the race compromised by a poor trip and a lingering foot issue. He went the rest of 2019 without racing to give that troublesome hoof a chance to fully grow out, and By My Standards hardly could’ve been more impressive in his comeback win last month at Fair Grounds.

The race didn’t come up especially fast on the Beyer Speed Figure scale, but By My Standards’ 97 from the Louisiana Derby, an early season 3-year-old stakes, shows he has “fast” racing in him. Moreover, jockey Gabe Saez barely even moved his hands, much less encouraged his mount with the crop, in that second-level allowance, a perfect comeback race that demanded more than a morning work without emptying the tank for a future start – this one.

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It’s not like Silver Dust, By My Standards’ stablemate, works as a rabbit here, but the fact is he can occupy likely leader Fearless during the middle stages and let By My Standards settle into his rhythm behind them. Silver Dust enters in peak form, yet all the evidence suggests he’s slightly vulnerable at 1 1/8 miles, while Fearless’s latest speed figure looks more impressive than the visual on that race or subsequent workouts. Gun It comes off a career best but can’t be trusted to break through at this level until he gets his head screwed on straight – which might never happen.

Tom Benson Memorial

You can check out the Daily Racing Form race advance for the Tom Benson Memorial Stakes for more granular detail on the importance of the temporary turf rail coming down for racing this weekend at Fair Grounds. Thumbnail is this: the inside has been golden with the rail down this meet.

Not only does Dream Passage break from post 1, she has the speed to make the front and the form to win the Benson, whether it be leading or pressing from the fence. Notapradaprice seems like the only potential pace rival (she could be used as a back-up on multi-race wagers), and while Dream Passage probably won’t be as high as her 9-2 morning line, she might be playable with the Chad Brown-trained Altea taking action.

San Simeon Stakes

Bound for Nowhere has ranked among, what, the top dozen turf sprinters in the world over the last few seasons? Yes, he’s a 6-year-old now, but with a mere 12 starts, this is a low-mileage model, and Bound for Nowhere’s Turfway Park work pattern for his 2020 debut strongly suggests a horse still capable of reaching back and bringing the heat. He can lead or track the pace and faces a decidedly inferior field. We could all use a little solidity in our lives right now, and here’s your Weekend GamePlan banker.