Weekend GamePlan for March 20, 2021: Picks for Fair Grounds Oaks, Muniz Memorial, San Luis Rey

Well, it’s Derby Weekend!

Granted, we’re talking about two disparate locales, neither of which is in Kentucky – New Orleans and Hong Kong.

You think the $1 million Louisiana Derby offers a deep pot of gold, try the $3.09 Hong Kong Derby on for size. Speaking of size, John Size trains my (Hong Kong) Derby horse, Excellent Proposal, who had a slyly fantastic “barrier trial,” what we call a training race, and is set to win the 2,000-meter Hong Kong Derby. I’ll set the alarm for 4:30 a.m. Eastern to catch the race at DRFBets.com and have a wager.

Closer to home, the Louisiana Derby drew only eight, but why clutter a good race with filler? There are four principals (plus talented Run Classic) in this 1 3/16-mile contest – Mandaloun, Proxy, Midnight Bourbon, and Hot Rod Charlie.

I’ve come around to seeing Hot Rod Charlie’s appeal, but added distance might not help, and it’s Mandaloun or Proxy for me, with Proxy my pick based on price and his potential to improve. Mandaloun already has made a leap in professionalism; he went comfortably under the wire in the Risen Star, has since trained encouragingly, and should stay.

Fair Grounds Oaks

Always check a reputation against actual data, right? For instance, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is reputed to be relatively conservative in his approach, an astute assessor of talent. When Mott does something like move a maiden winner into a stakes race, the inclination is to believe there’s good reason for it. Statistics support the reputation.

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Here are the parameters of a DRF Formulator trainer-stat inquiry: 3-year-olds, dirt, maiden winner last out, stakes races, routes. Over the last five years, Mott’s 12 such runners produced five wins, three seconds, one third, and a $5.47 return on investment. Going back to Tacitus in the 2019 Tampa Bay Derby and running through Candy Man Rocket in the 2021 Sam Davis, Mott has won five in a row with horses like this.

Even before the stat check, I liked Obligatory coming from Mott’s stable in Florida for the Fair Grounds Oaks. Even in her modest-looking maiden sprint debut she showed something, turning in what was easily the fastest final quarter-mile after a rough start. There wasn’t a lot behind her in the Gulfstream maiden, but Obligatory ran even better than it looks on the page, and the guess is two turns only helps.

Li’l Tootsie also got a long look, and if she’s ridden more forwardly, as is the plan, I think she can be even more effective than in her route debut.

Muniz Memorial

Colonel Liam could well be the cat’s meow in the Muniz. He’s showing signs of turning into a true turf tiger in races between nine and 10 furlongs and has been working with a vengeance over dirt at Palm Beach Downs.

But as for actual performance? The relatively narrow victory over the capable but limited Largent was fine, but Colonel Liam is going to be bet Saturday like he won the Pegasus Turf by open lengths. The field is large, traffic is possible, and Colonel Liam, in the end, isn’t much faster than several.

Two long prices interested me: Two Emmys, who will be forwardly placed, and Captivating Moon, who will come late. I went with Captivating Moon - also entered in the New Orleans Classic - who was a course-and-distance winner over a similar group, Colonel Liam aside, last month. Maybe it was soft turf that moved Captivating Moon up – or maybe it was just turf. The horse had been kept to dirt races for the better part of two years, but his turf performance, looking back over his career, is superior. Bettors will dismiss that last win as a fluke. I’ll guess it wasn’t.

San Luis Rey

Masteroffoxhounds, I think, will emerge as the widespread choice of bettors playing against United in his first start since an odd performance in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Masteroffoxhounds did catch the eye winning with plenty in the tank Feb. 6 in the San Marcos, but that is a fairly slim résumé on which to base a pretty short price, and there is no certainty this horse stays 1 1/2 miles.

The risk with Say the Word, my pick and play, is that racing without Lasix last out in the Pegasus, he performed well below his best form. But Say the Word also was out on the road for that start and got a poor trip. If he rebounds to his best 2020 form – and workout video suggests he might – he stands a good chance of winning this.