Weekend GamePlan for March 14, 2020: Picks for Jeff Ruby Steaks, Kentucky Cup Classic, Essex Handicap

You might be reeling from federal racing indictments, practicing social distancing in response to the novel coronavirus, but it’s another strong stakes Saturday across the United States.

Oaklawn’s at the heart of it, and we have a Weekend GamePlan race on that card, the Essex, though the highest-quality competition comes in the Azeri and the Rebel. Street Band tempted us in the Azeri, but in the end, even with a pace rival, it’s just as likely Serengeti Empress runs them off their feet at a short price.

We know Nadal will be overbet in the Rebel, but also that he’s an elite talent. His rail draw looks especially fraught with major pace factor No Parole drawn to his outside. Ce Ce in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile at Santa Anita just missed making the cut here, but with a tricky pace scenario in her two-turn debut, the juice probably won’t be worth the squeeze.

Jeff Ruby Steaks

Finnick the Fierce shipped from Kentucky to Fair Grounds for the Lecomte and the Risen Star, and New Orleans didn’t exactly welcome him. The gelding lacking a right eye got about his worst possible draw, post 1, in the Lecomte, where he had some trouble, and got away poorly while stuck outside behind a slow pace in the second division of the Risen Star.

Circumstances as much as anything have kept Finnick the Fierce from building on his strong performance last fall in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which has turned into a decidedly key race, producing Holy Bull winner Tiz the Law, Lecomte winner Enforceable, and Southwest winner Silver Prospector.

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Finnick the Fierce is a lumbering sort who wants room to operate on the outside. He needs a fair pace to adequately spread the field and allow him the right trip, and it looks like he could get that dynamic in the Jeff Ruby. Fancy Liquor, My Amanoi, Invader, and Field Pass all look usable, but Finnick the Fierce, at his one-eyed best, can handle that group.

Kentucky Cup Classic

This is about as strong a race as one could possibly imagine with older horses running for $150,000, and the Kentucky Cup Classic’s composition – this entire card, really – shows there is a population for synthetic-surface racing in America.

TimeformUS pace figures reflect what we see merely looking at the running lines: A bunch of horses want to go forward in this 1 1/8-mile contest. Several are hovering around the 100 level regarding early pace, with three more – Royal Mesa, likely favorite Somelikeithotbrown, and Lanier – rated 108 to 114 for early pace. The latter two are drawn far outside and surely will be sent to get position, and this race is a strong bet to produce fast and taxing early and middle fractions.

This is the sort of setup Signalman requires to race effectively, and the way I envision the Kentucky Cup Classic has him getting a very favorable trip, especially considering jockey Corey Lanerie’s propensity for coming up the fence with closers. Regarding baseline quality, Signalman showed enough during his 2- and 3-year-old seasons to view him as good enough to win if things go right, and, to me, the long layoff works more as an odds enhancer than a drag on his win chance.

The McPeek barn long ago demonstrated it can have the right horse ready to return sharp from a break, and the first breeze showing on Signalman’s pattern was a solid half-mile at Gulfstream, suggesting he’d already been doing some work at a farm. He makes his synthetic-surface debut, but sire General Quarters is one I trust on artificial surfaces, and Signalman almost certainly will be the right price to play.

Essex Handicap

There’s a 90 percent chance of rain Saturday at Oaklawn, and it’s hard to believe that helps anyone in the Essex Handicap more than Pioneer Spirit, who is 4-0-2 from seven wet-track starts. Over a sloppy Oaklawn strip in the 2019 Oaklawn Handicap he missed by less than a length at a nine-furlong distance beyond his best.

Warrior’s Charge outran Pioneer Spirit for the lead last out in the Razorback, but Warrior’s Charge is working at Fair Grounds instead of running in this race. Other than some moderate speed from Snapper Sinclair, the Essex looks devoid of real pace. Maybe the subpar performance in the Razorback heralds a more general decline, but it also might mean Pioneer Spirit is poised for a bounce-back performance under favorable circumstances.