Weekend GamePlan for March 13, 2021: Picks for Beholder Mile, San Simeon, Temperence Hill

Many will focus Saturday on Oaklawn Park, where the program is headed by the weekend’s important Kentucky Derby prep, the Rebel Stakes.

I wanted to dip more deeply into Hot Springs, but could not come up with solid opinions in the most important races.

My belief is Caddo River handles Concert Tour in the Rebel, but it’s not a strong enough belief to back with a bet – not at the expected odds. Caddo River has good 2-year-old form through Greatest Honour and looked like a horse who developed markedly over the winter when he aired in the Smarty Jones. He’s the one with the solid 2-year-old foundation, the two-turn experience, the familiarity with the local surface, so if Concert Tour is favored, I suppose that constitutes value on Caddo River.

Look for a taxing pace in the Hot Springs Stakes, where Whitmore and C Z Rocket both could be beat. Engage tempted at the expected price, but it’s been too long since he hit a high enough mark for me to bite.

I like Silver State – but in a one-turn race, not two, and both he and Tax seem vulnerable in the Essex.

Shedaresthedevil comes to the Azeri, her first start in more than four months, with one work as far as five furlongs; is she really ready for this? Envoutante drew the fence and has only the one performance, the Falls City, to truly recommend her. But, again, I can’t squarely side with anyone else.

Onto the actual plays.

Beholder Mile

The only Saturday Grade 1 in North America, the Beholder, brings forth the remarkable Swiss Skydiver, who had a throwback 2020 campaign for the ages. I can’t wait to see her back in action – but she’s sort of horse you’re supposed to bet against in a spot like this.

Maybe this filly possesses so much substance that her ambitious 2020 race schedule never takes a toll, but even accounting for her early stumble, her Breeders’ Cup Distaff suggested it might have. Now she ships cross-country for her 4-year-old debut and has landed in a tricky spot drawn at the rail.

:: Get Brad Free’s Betting Strategies for Saturday’s card at Santa Anita

As Time Goes By could take more betting than her 4-1 morning line. Maybe she’s a really good filly, but I’m far from convinced. She did look like a route horse while running in sprint races and her lone route got a big number, but As Time Goes By got a perfect trip in that soft first-level allowance race, and do take a look at the weak the next-out winners behind her actually won.

My pick and play in the Beholder had been Sanenus, but she will not be winning Saturday after being scratched on Friday with a relatively minor setback. While I preferred Sanenus, I also saw Harvest Moon as the other principal player in terms of both value and potential, so rather than dig for another race, I will shift my allegiance her to Harvest Moon.

I preferred Sanenus over Harvest Moon in great part because of a recency edge, but Harvest Moon has gotten in a long series of encouraging drills and has been pointed to this race all winter by capable layoff connections. Harvest Moon did beat up on some suspect competition during her 2020 win streak, but there’s no question she improved considerably through the year, and her game fourth in the BC Distaff came with a demanding inside trip contesting the pace. She has the feel of a horse who ought to be a better 4-year-old than she was a 3-year-old and I think she’ll prove a formidable foe for Swiss Skydiver.

San Simeon

It’s somewhat amusing that Jolie Olimpica’s best North American race came the one time she didn’t get hammered in the betting – her second to Rushing Fall in the Jenny Wiley last summer. She’s listed at 3-1 on the morning line for this six-furlong grass sprint, but I don’t agree with this line at all and would expect her to be shorter.

I’d also expect my pick and play, Gregorian Chant, to be longer than his listed odds. This is an interesting horse, connections experimenting at 1 1/2 miles two races ago, then radically altering the regimen to try a turf sprint. Voila! That worked! An eye-catching kick in the Clocker’s Corner and subsequent work for the hot Phil D’Amato barn suggest he will back that performance up with a similar one in this tougher spot.

Temperence Hill

Tenfold is not a grass horse, and my take is that his two recent grass races – where he ran surprisingly well – were all part of the master plan to get him to this 1 1/2-mile dirt race. Tenfold teases a lot with a looming move at the quarter pole, but in the end, he has no real turn of foot, and a grinding 12-furlong run should truly suit him. He did, after all, race against Justify in the 2018 Belmont Stakes.