Weekend GamePlan for March 12, 2022: Picks for Azeri, Challenger, San Luis Rey

Tampa Bay Downs sits at the center of this weekend’s American racing action, and their Tampa Bay Derby card, top to bottom, holds ample appeal.

Weather could be a factor. There’s going to be rain through late Saturday morning, that seems certain, but what it means for the turf and dirt tracks isn’t certain at all. By the time the featured Tampa Bay Derby comes round late in the card the dirt might mainly be dried.

Classic Causeway was impressive in the Sam Davis (more so than his speed figure, to me) and subsequent workout video suggests a colt who is going to run at least as well. I came close to giving Happy Boy Rocket a push. He’s sitting on a serious step forward Saturday, but one wonders if it will be enough to take down the favorite.

Azeri

The weights, set by allowance conditions, in this prep for the Grade 1 Apple Blossom are frustrating. I did give Pauline’s Pearl a long look, but despite the fact she finished eighth in her only Grade 1 start and has only won at the Grade 3 level, she’s the 124-pound highweight, giving seven pounds to a Breeders’ Cup winner and five to a Kentucky Oaks winner. Pauline’s Pearl does have positive experience over the Oaklawn Park track and is in the form of her life, but facing her toughest task since the Kentucky Oaks, where she wasn’t competitive, while giving up weight is less than ideal.

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Shedaresthedevil, the 2020 Oaks winner, is 5-2 on the track’s morning line but will be a shorter price than that. A multiple Grade 1 winner, Shedaresthedevil got sucked into the enervating pace in the BC Distaff and held on solidly considering the race flow. She beat subsequent Eclipse Award winner Letruska in this race a year ago and has put together a flashy work pattern for her two-time Eclipse-award winning trainer. She’ll take considerable betting action.

Ce Ce is 3-1 on the line, which seems about right – and seems like value. Do recall that Ce Ce’s lone trip to Oaklawn produced a rousing victory in the Apple Blossom itself, a race in which she overcame post 14 and stayed 1 1/8 miles, no small feat considering she is a BC Filly and Mare Sprint winner.

Ce Ce threw a clunker in her most recent route try, the Santa Maria last May, perhaps uncoincidentally her first race without Lasix. Her loss to loose-leader Merneith last time out doesn’t trouble me, though it ought to boost the mare’s odds. With a decent break in the Azeri, Ce Ce should fall into a sweet trip and can beat Shedaresthedevil at a savory price.

Challenger

Wolfie’s Dynaghost is 10-1 on the Tampa Bay morning line, and that would be a great price on a horse I believe rates a very strong chance.

Wolfie doesn’t want to run as far as his brother, the Grade 1-winning 1 1/2-mile turf horse Sadler’s Joy, but it does seem meaningful that wins in his last two starts came in his first races around two turns. The Tapeta victory last out at Gulfstream Park especially caught the eye; the pace should have been all against him, but not only did Wolfie turn everyone away, he wound up winning comfortably.

I’d posit that dirt is this colt’s best surface, and he has been training this winter over the local oval. Wolfie looked entirely comfortable in his lone start on a sloppy track and beat the capable Weyburn debuting over a good dirt surface. This is the deepest Challenger I can recall, but I don’t fancy any of the layoff returnees that will take betting.

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San Luis Rey

Say the Word hasn’t been favored since September 2018, when he won a first-level allowance race at Tampa Bay. He’s going to be favored in the San Luis Rey, but perhaps not as heavily as he ought to be, and he’s my play here.

Say the Word finished second to the strong miler Smooth Like Strait in the 2021 Shoemaker Mile, a testament to his quality and versatility because, fundamentally, this is a 1 1/2-mile horse. United defeated him in this race a year ago, but there’s nothing of that baseline quality in this field. The rail draw seems ideal for Say the Word, who has passed the eye test in workout video since his comeback run. He’s a relatively short number in the win pool, but a very likely winner of the San Luis Rey.