Santa Anita has a shortage of horses in several stakes races, while Belmont has a surplus of Chad Brown horses in several stakes races, but hey, if you hadn’t noticed yet this year, the universe is an imperfect place, and those coastal pillars support a good Saturday of North American racing unfolding in bad times. Don a mask, take a knee, and at some point, sit down with your Daily Racing Form and dig into the past performances. Santa Anita Derby This is a limited race in some ways, but it’s also the biggest race on the day, includes two leading 3-year-olds, and I am playing against the favorite, Authentic. Authentic is 4-5 on the track’s morning line and could be even shorter. Authentic’s strongest attribute is his speed and the accompanying ability to carry it over a route of ground. He’s fast in racing but also rateable, and really runs well from the three-eighths pole to midstretch. We don’t know how he’d fare in a fight from the furlong grounds to the finish because no one’s yet been close enough to give him one. :: Want to get your Past Performances for free? Click to learn more. On the other hand, there were always going to be questions – based on style and pedigree – about Authentic’s capability at distances beyond 1 1/16 miles, and here we have him going 1 1/8 miles for the first time. My feeling is Authentic will stay decently but that the distance can’t help him at all. Moreover, in Shooters Shoot and, perhaps, Rushie, he has quick horses drawn inside him who, at least with Shooters Shoot, should lay down a strong enough pace that Authentic can’t merely coast along. :: To stay up to date, follow us on: Facebook | Instagram | Twitter Finally, there’s the question of Authentic’s training. Watching all the available video starting in mid-April, I got the distinct sense Authentic was going better at the beginning of May than he is at the start of June. His May 17 work wasn’t bad, but it was the least impressive drill I recall seeing from him in months, as he switched to the wrong lead and jinked to the fence before the wire. Subsequent breezes were a little better, but this has been a strange, interrupted spring, and I just wonder where Authentic is right now. Honor A. P. hardly will offer boxcar odds, but he will be second choice and he’s got a great chance to turn the tables on Authentic, who handled him in the San Felipe. Honor A. P.’s missed time due to a foot bruise leading into that race surely compromised his preparation, yet he still turned in an encouraging run, and video of his training the last five weeks strongly suggests a horse going the right direction. The stretch-out to nine furlongs could be all he needs to flip the form on Authentic and win the Santa Anita Derby. Cinema Stakes The hope is the Cinema betting plays out along the morning line, with Hariboux favored over K P All Systems Go, because K P All Systems Go is easily the more likely winner of this nine-furlong turf contest. Hariboux is a compact model whose sire was a miler and whose solid but pace-aided Pasadena Stakes win came over one mile. His stablemate K P All Systems Go has considerably more heft, both physically and, from my perspective, in terms of ability. K P All Systems Go did get a favorable setup in his maiden win, which came at this nine-furlong trip, but please do watch the acceleration he displays in upper stretch. Cut back to a mile facing other winners for the first time, he made an eye-catching turn move to overcome a slow pace and post a comfortable win. I think he’s a really promising 3-year-old and I’ll key him in multi-race wagers and bet him to win at 8-5 or higher. Fort Marcy Who are we supposed to fear in this nine-furlong, Grade 2 grass race? Instilled Regard? I don’t think so. In fact, there’s no one to fear, no clearly superior horse, and no reason Somelikeithotbrown can’t turn what appears to be a considerable pace advantage into a good-priced score. Somelikeithotbrown easily is the most likely horse to fill the Fort Marcy pace void and with the right setup he can stay this distance. Keep in mind he was a close third in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and that in his previous race, the Pilgrim at Belmont, he finished in front of Social Paranoia, who’s a much shorter price on this morning line. His Gulfstream grass race earlier this year is a toss and at anything close to the published odds, Somelikeithotbrown is a play.