Weekend GamePlan for June 18, 2022: Picks for Platinum Jubilee, Eatontown, Romacaca
Short stakes fields in New York and California and a general paucity of stakes racing this Saturday means we have to scour all corners of the racing world – from Ascot in England to Stickney in industrial near-suburban Chicago – to find some horses to play.
Platinum Jubilee Stakes
Well, short fields generally are NOT a problem at Royal Ascot, especially in the Platinum Jubilee. The six-furlong, straight-course sprint, closing-day feature of the five-day meet, drew 27 entrants. That’s like four stakes races these days in America.
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The Australian shipper Home Affairs is going to be a strong favorite here, even more so after his Chris Waller-trained stablemate Nature Strip made short work of the King’s Stand Stakes over a straight five furlongs on Tuesday. Home Affairs appears every bit as capable a sprinter as Nature Strip and at his peak will clearly be a tough customer – though taking a short price in a 27-runner field seems imprudent. It’s also important to note that handling such a long ship from Australia and adapting to the undulating nature of the Ascot course doesn’t happen uniformly from horse to horse. Just because Nature Strip’s “A” game traveled doesn’t mean Home Affairs’s will.
I did consider A Case of You, who is going to be a good price after losing last out in Ireland in a start surely intended as a prep for the Platinum Jubilee. A Case of You sweetly won the Group 1 Al Quoz on the Dubai World Cup card, albeit on the best part of the Meydan straight course, and excels at six furlongs. Instead, I’ll be a homer and side with the American horse Campanelle.
While Home Affairs likely will be overbet because of the way another horse from his trainer ran, Campanelle’s price probably goes in the other direction, up, since her Wesley Ward-trained stablemate Golden Pal was such a King’s Stand disappointment. But while Golden Pal in three starts now has failed to bring his best American form to Europe, Campanelle has two wins going straight at Ascot.
Granted, she was placed first via disqualification last year in the Group 1 Commonwealth, but there’s a great chance the filly is going to vastly prefer firm going Saturday to the heavy ground she caught a year ago. I thought her 2022 debut at Keeneland was awesome, showcasing a filly who truly had matured at age 4. Her price will be better in England than it is in America, but I’m still anticipating something appealing.
Eatontown
While I nearly took Safe Conduct to wire the Monmouth Stakes on a four-stakes Monmouth card, I had to come back to Lemista in the Eatontown instead.
I liked Lemista last month in the Beaugay, ultimately won by her odds-on stablemate Rougir, and I don’t think Lemista had a fair shot at all that day. In the race’s early stages, she could have snuck into a perfect spot covered up along the rail and just behind a walking pace. Instead, she was held near the back of the field, an impossible position considering the pokey tempo, and, to my eye, Lemista was passively ridden until the three-sixteenths pole or thereabouts. I saw a subtle late flash the final 100 yards suggesting Lemista did have some run, and she improved sharply last year in her second start after a layoff. She figures to be a longer price than her Chad Brown-trained stablemate Fluffy Socks, while talented Princess Grace won’t quite be at her best returning from a half-year break.
Romacaca
Trainer Ignacio Correas shipped Cheetara from Kentucky to win the Crestwood, a six-furlong dirt sprint June 4 at Hawthorne, and named the same rider, Vincent Cheminaud, to try and win another Hawthorne stakes, the Romacaca, this one a turf route. I suspect Bellagamba will be a shorter win price than her 4-1 morning line but also feel she’s easily this race’s most likely winner.
Bellagamba spiked a fever a couple months ago, which accounts for her break from racing since December, but from Correas’s account she has been training better than ever at Keeneland. Bellagamba just was finding herself over the winter at Fair Grounds when her form cycle came to and end, and if she follows a fairly typical trajectory for a South American import, she’s going to improve through the summer and fall of her 2022 campaign.