Weekend Gameplan for June 13, 2020: Picks for Ogden Phipps, Louisville, and Woodstock

Only seven North American stakes races on this second Saturday in June, and we’ve got a couple second choices and one bomber that could bring sunshine into your gambling day.

Ogden Phipps

If one could transpose Ollie’s Candy’s performance in the Apple Blossom Stakes directly onto the Ogden Phipps, she’d almost certainly win. Check out the Apple Blossom chart and see where the other horses close to the pace wound up. Sure, there can be some benefit (and often was later in the Oaklawn meet) to racing on a clear lead, even at a very fast pace, but taking that into account, Ollie’s Candy still ran lights-out, beating everyone but Ce Ce, who had a far better trip.

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But there’s just no evidence supporting belief that Ollie’s Candy, surely the favorite here, will repeat her Apple Blossom. On the contrary, that was the best race of her life, and while she’s gotten decent recovery time, we’re talking about a 5-year-old with 12 career starts, a strong suggestion she’s not the most robust animal constitutionally. There’s a cross-country ship to consider and her recent works have looked workmanlike.

She’s a Julie tempts at the listed odds since her peak performance puts her squarely in win contention. It’s just that we’re a year removed from a peak performance, and while She’s a Julie’s poor start last out at Churchill hurt, she was finished by the quarter pole.

Golden Award is another 5-year-old with 12 starts, and while she could get a great trip at a fair price, I believe this is Point of Honor’s race.

It’s not just that Point of Honor is a 4-year-old, but that her pedigree and physical profile strongly suggest she’s easily the most progressive horse in the Phipps. I don’t want to get too hung up on her Apple Blossom, which has been overpraised; the fact she was pinched back and wound up so far behind turned out more blessing than curse given the race flow. Still, that was an encouraging performance following a useful Tampa comeback run where she hooked a sharp winner. Getting back to that “physical profile” remark, video of Point of Honor’s work May 24 at Palm Beach Downs reveals a filly who has undergone major development since her excellent 3-year-old campaign, during which she turned in nothing but good races. I wouldn’t be surprised if she shows more pace than expected and she has the best finishing lick among this bunch.

Louisville Stakes

Arklow is a Grade 1 winner of nearly $2 million. All due respect to his accomplishments, but to me he’s a horse to oppose at a short price in his first start since January.

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Neither do the second and third Louisville choices strike fear into a bettor. Admission Office is one of the worst tease horses of the last two years, is unproven at the distance, has a tough post, and actually took a step back last out. Tiz A Slam is a pace horse in the way kombucha is an alcoholic beverage, which is to say he has no actual early zip.

I’ll take a shot with the horse I think is the real pace player, Lombo.

Lombo is no elite performer but the overall scope of his form, going back to the Robert Lewis win at age 3, is better than you think. He was tried in a bunch of sprints last year, and when he popped a career-best performance galloping freely at nine furlongs March 21 at Oaklawn, it suggested connections had him pegged as the wrong type of horse by running him short; Lombo better suits a steady route tempo and appears to stay. Regarding the surface switch, the turf sprint showing on his form was not a bad performance at all (considering he’s not a sprinter) and his dam was a turf-route stakes winner. His post-Oaklawn work pattern suggests a thriving horse, and at the price I’ll gladly take my chance with Lombo looking to lead all the way.

Woodstock

Here’s hoping Untitled gets bet to favoritism in this 3-year-old Tapeta sprint because Clayton is a likely winner. The chart comment “blocked” is a little misleading, but even sans trouble, that was a potent debut performance last fall. I found a work video from March at Gulfstream and was impressed at how he got over dirt, considering the power of his Tapeta performance, and if anything, this six-furlong trip should fit him better than last year’s shorter sprint.