Weekend GamePlan for July 9, 2022: Picks for Belmont Derby, Belmont Oaks, Jonathan Schuster Memorial
From the wilds of Altoona, Iowa, and Shelbyville, Indiana, to Long Island, N.Y., and Stanton, Delaware, it’s quite the summer Saturday of racing.
The Indiana Derby (Actuator gets the nod) headlines an eight-stakes Horseshoe Indianapolis card, while the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker (Warrant is the one) marks the high point of the Iowa racing year. The Delaware Handicap has become a pale shadow of a race that used to attract champions.
Those races are dirt; we’re going green this week.
Belmont Derby Invitational
There are five Euros in a very strong renewal of the Belmont Derby. One of them is Stone Age, who is a tepid morning line favorite at 9-2. Stone Age was well fancied in the Derby at Epsom last out but failed to land a blow. The colt looks the part of a Derby horse – scopey, chiseled, strong galloper. It’s less a question of talent with him than mental makeup. The short comment from Epsom notes say he was sweating pre-start, and when things have not gone his way, Stone Age has failed to come close to his best. He might get the sweet, clean run he wants from post 13, stalking what should be a strong, contentious pace, but I’m going against Stone Age.
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Machete merits a second look, especially anywhere near his 20-1 morning line. Machete struggled on softer going in the Prix du Jockey Club, but his second-place finish over firmer footing behind Vadeni stamps him as a player. Vadeni followed his knockout Prix du Jockey Club score with a win over older horses in the Group 1 Eclipse.
But Nations Pride is the pick and play to give trainer Charlie Appleby his first Belmont Derby. Appleby the last two years in North American Grade 1 turf races has compiled a mind-blowing record of 14-8-2-1, and while Nations Pride is a European horse, he has positive experience over the flat, left-handed American-style course at Meydan. Epsom, with its sharp, sudden turns and dramatic undulations, is a completely different kind of racecourse, and Nations Pride just wasn’t quite ready for the Derby. His previous start, over good ground at Newmarket, was excellent, and Frankie Dettori has plenty of tactical speed to deploy and work out a favorable stalking trip.
Belmont Oaks
Concert Hall, Ryan Moore riding for Aidan O’Brien, has proven among the better 3-year-old fillies in Europe. The 1000 Guineas at Newmarket at a straight mile fell short of her best distance, though Concert Hall ran well behind Homeless Songs, a star, and Tuesday, who went on to win the Oaks.
Concert Hall’s fourth in the Oaks was itself excellent, as third-place Nashwa returned to win the Group 1 Prix de Diane and second-place Emily Upjohn just might win the 2022 Arc.
Concert Hall appeared to be struggling over yielding turf when getting 12 pounds from older rivals last out in the Pretty Polly, but there’s little question she was below form in that race. Even without the trouble she encountered in the homestretch, Concert Hall was coming nowhere near the top finishers. Now she’s back on relatively short rest for her fifth race in 10 weeks.
New Year’s Eve has produced perhaps the best single turf race by an American 3-year-old filly this year, but that came Derby week at Churchill Downs, where a handful of horses excelled over a slippery, tricky course that many failed to handle at all.
I’ll side with another horse coming off the Churchill turf, McKulick.
McKulick is 0 for 3 since a debut win at Saratoga in August, but surely her connections long ago circled this spot as her first main goal of the season and used her two 2022 starts as stepping-stones to get here. This filly is made for 1 1/4 miles, and while beaten last out, she finished with excellent energy, closing strongly on a horse who got the jump and quickly winning the gallop-out. She’s in for a ground-saving trip behind a solid pace and can rally to win at a surprisingly fair price for a Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz runner.
Jonathan Schuster Memorial
Ivar has the name recognition in this middle-distance grass race, but also has a tough post for his first race after a long layoff and a belated 2022 debut. Duke of Hazzard and Somelikeithotbrown will make it onto multi-race plays for me, but to win I like Cavalry Charge.
Throw out his two races over the since-abandoned Churchill Downs grass course and he’s a strong fit here, with form lines through Adhamo and Two Emmys, both Grade 1 performers on their day. His tactical speed slots him into a good stalking trip, and while the 15-1 morning line odds seem high, he’ll be a square price.