Weekend GamePlan for July 4, 2020: Picks for Metropolitan Handicap, Manhattan, Poker

Saturday’s Belmont Park card, anchored by the Metropolitan Handicap and the Manhattan, has come up stronger than Belmont Stakes Day, and we’ll keep this space centered on Long Island.

At Delaware, its local Oaks looks inscrutable, while short-priced Gufo is too likely a winner of the Kent Stakes. At Woodbine, Uncle Bull in the Eclipse Stakes will get a portion of my Saturday bankroll. Bellafina’s rail draw in the Great Lady M. at Los Alamitos is tricky, and she’s hard to trust at her price. I’m very interested to see what enormously talented Uncle Chuck can do in the Los Al Derby.

Metropolitan Handicap

McKinzie is the morning-line favorite in the Met (a handicap in name only, to be fair), and I don’t think he’ll win. Keep in mind, McKinzie came into the 2019 Met, which he might’ve won with a clean run, following a strong performance going farther than he prefers in the Santa Anita Handicap and an “A” race in the Alysheba. This time around, his pattern is a total dud in Saudi Arabia and a modest victory in a humdrum Triple Bend, where second choice Flagstaff failed to fire. I compared video of his works before the 2019 Met and the 2019 Whitney to his recent drills and distinctly preferred last year’s breezes.

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Vekoma sits at 5-2 on the line and if real, those are deflated odds. Vekoma turned in powerful performances on the clock and to the eye in his two 2020 starts, but his victim at Gulfstream, Yorkton, is limited (as we saw in the True North last weekend), while his 110 Beyer from the Carter came with a perfect trip over a wet track. Vekoma’s inside draw, with pace rivals Mr Freeze and Warrior’s Charge lined up to this outside, also does him no favors.

Mr Freeze holds appeal cutting back to a one-turn mile, likely his best trip, but his recent gap in works gives me pause, though he’s exacta-eligible for me. I can’t get to Network Effect or Endorsed.

That leaves Code of Honor, but I’m not just backing into him to win the Met – he’s a strong selection. The broad shape of his form, dating to his career debut, is excellent, the lone loose thread in an otherwise lovely fabric coming from the Breeders’ Cup Classic, run over a tricky racing surface. Code of Honor’s Westchester was the perfect comeback, making him work just hard enough to gain fitness without losing his edge. He’s set to improve and win this prestigious race.

Manhattan

Who’s riding which of Chad Brown’s three starters here could drive a dedicated jockeyologist mad. I’ll pay no heed to it and stick with the horse I prefer, Rockemperor, with the hope (but little faith) he goes off somewhat close to his morning line.

Rockemperor remains eligible to a second-level allowance race after 11 starts, but he seems poised for a career-best performance Saturday. In the Muniz Memorial at Fair Grounds, Rockemperor wound up seven paths off a golden rail, finishing encouragingly for third behind Factor This, who confirmed his winter form with a powerful win in the Wise Dan at Churchill. And while Rockemperor wants to make a late run, I thought he was held too hard, too far behind a slow pace at Santa Anita last time. Even so, for all intents and purposes, he won that race, United getting the friendliest head bob ever as Rockemperor took a very, very tough disqualification.

Rockemperor still looked heavy to me at Santa Anita, and the most recent workout video I could find, from a strong June 14 drill, showed a sleeker specimen. He’s much more a 1 1/4-mile type than morning-line favorite Instilled Regard, who prefers nine furlongs, and 7-2 second choice Sadler’s Joy, who wants 1 1/2 miles. This is Rockemperor’s race to rule.

Poker

Value Proposition, the 5-2 morning line favorite and, even more so, co-second choices Valid Point and Got Stormy are horses I’ll happily try and beat in this Grade 3 turf mile.

Value Proposition scored a rousing debut win and looked good beating solid allowance foes last out. Maybe he’s a budding star, but I think folks have gotten ahead of themselves here.

An early pace void complicates analysis, but Seismic Wave a year ago nearly won the Pennine Ridge closing into a tepid tempo on this course, and he can deliver a final quarter-mile fast enough to get home, provided he’s given a better positional trip than he got in the Pennine Ridge or, for that matter, the First Defence last out. The First Defence and a one-mile race late last year strongly suggest that Seismic Wave has found his niche as a miler and his stretch run going seven furlongs last time was very encouraging.