Weekend GamePlan for July 25, 2020: Picks for San Clemente, Marine, Selene

Let’s start with the three most talented horses racing Saturday in North America – which means talking about three races I won’t be playing.

Maximum Security – well, what a situation this is. First start since winning the Saudi Cup, first start since trainer Jason Servis was arrested, first start for trainer Bob Baffert. Those are just the circumstances surrounding his comeback, and the way Maximum Security has been brought up to the San Diego Stakes at Del Mar commands attention itself.

Watching all his workout videos one could generally say Maximum Security has been breezing “good, not great.” This is a colt who always has shown speed, but Baffert has been breaking him off several lengths behind a series of workmates – Midnight Mystery, his regular partner early in his work pattern, followed by Once On Whiskey, Dark Prince, and Leading Edge – his rider asking for speed in upper stretch and strongly urging him through gallop-outs. The workmates have been increasingly talented, ranging from modest Midnight Mystery to stakes-class Leading Edge, and you could look at Ax Man, Baffert’s second San Diego entrant, as yet another workmate, this one just happening to be part of an actual race. Ax Man has plenty of speed and will give Maximum Security the target his new trainer seems to want him to have. There are plenty of reasons to try and beat Maximum Security, but, to me, no horse with which to beat him. Higher Power would have the best chance at 1 1/8 miles or farther, but this is just too short and he’s prepping for the Pacific Classic.

At Saratoga, Sistercharlie is 2-5 on the morning line to win the Ballston Spa, the first start of her 6-year-old season, while Volatile is the 4-5 morning-line chalk in the Vanderbilt. Sistercharlie, no doubt, produces her best race at a distance longer than the 1 1/16 miles she gets Saturday. It is also worth noting she comfortably won the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, coming back from a layoff, in her most recent try at the distance. And last summer, she was spectacular in the Grade 1 Diana, her seasonal debut. She has a pacemaker to help and will be entering the Saratoga winner’s circle a very short-priced success.

Volatile is an odds-on favorite to win a Grade 1 that happens to be his first start in a graded race of any sort. Given how damn fast he is, the paucity of career starts midway through his 4-year-old season, and the way his body moves at high speed, Volatile might have durability issues. He’ll be negative value given the improved competition and so on, but he’s got a cozy outside draw in a paceless race and should make short work even of good horses like Whitmore and Firenze Fire.

On to the plays.

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San Clemente

Applecross’s most recent race, a fifth in the Jimmy Durante over the Del Mar course, wasn’t recent at all, coming last November, but it caught the eye enough to dive a little deeper. Applecross didn’t have a clean run in that race, galloping out strongly after turning in the second-fastest final furlong behind victorious Alms. And, oh my, does trainer Richard Baltas have some applicable stats. The last two years, Baltas is 24-9-3-2 with a $4.63 ROI bringing horses back from layoffs between 180 and 500 days in turf route races. He’s won with six of 13 such starters over the last year, and this move has worked in stakes races, too. There’s speed to get late-running Applecross a decent trip, and I liked her July 12 team workout with San Francisco Mile winner Neptune’s Storm, a good older turf horse with whom she held her own.

Marine, Selene

I’ll try to beat favorites with Mark Casse-trained runners in the Grade 3 races at Woodbine, the Marine, for 3-year-olds, and the Selene, for 3-year-old fillies.

Shirl’s Speight’s vaunted career debut rated higher on the visual (and internet hype) scale than on speed figures; the 88 he got was good, not daunting. Here he goes from a maiden turf sprint to a graded Tapeta route, and Lucky Curlin might be able to beat him. Lucky Curlin ran the best race of his career last out, making his first synthetic-surface start and finishing off that seven-furlong run like this two-turn trip will work just fine.

In the Selene, Diamond Sparkles, who ran well in the Grade 1 Natalma making her North American debut last year at Woodbine, finally got back on track June 13 in a Woodbine main-track allowance where the sharp winner got a huge jump on this filly. Diamond Sparkles’ dam was a stakes horse over 1 1/4 and 1 1/2 miles for trainer Aidan O’Brien, and this filly could take a considerable step forward going back to two turns from a sprint.