Weekend GamePlan for July 24, 2021: Picks for Eddie Read, Nassau, Caress
Too bad there are only four in North America’s lone Grade 1 on Saturday, the Coaching Club American Oaks, which will have Malathaat as an odds-on favorite hardly worth trying to beat. Sure, there are just six Saturday in Europe’s biggest race, the King George (post time 10:35 a.m. Eastern – don’t miss it) but what a sextet, headed by the great Love, Derby winner Adayar, and Saudi Cup and Sheema Classic winner Mishriff. Closer to home, we’re making stops on both coasts and north of the U.S. border to find three plays.
Eddie Read
The race of the day in North America, this nine-furlong turf contest that really ought to be a Grade 1, rather than a Grade 2. Six-year-old United won this a year ago, getting a perfect trip while facing softer competition, but, to me, his presence here and the money he’ll take means a win-pool value boost for others. United was beaten a long way out at odds-on in his most recent start and cutting back to nine furlongs with a much different trip than last year’s ideal Read journey looming, I’d tab him fourth-best here.
Smooth Like Strait at heart is a miler, but his development in the rating game, rather than just using his speed to win races, gives him a much greater chance to win tough races over 1 1/8 miles. The saddle slipping in the Turf Classic at this distance surely hurt his chances and could easily have accounted for the final-furlong drifting that carried Smooth Like Strait into Colonel Liam. I’d guess the race shakes out with Award Winner leading on a moderate tempo, Smooth Like Strait prompting on the outside, as United races behind Award Winner, Restrainedvengence on his outside. That likely leaves Vintage Print and Say the Word as the next twosome, and from there, Say the Word could be very dangerous.
Cut back to one mile in the Shoemaker, Say the Word delivered a serious final quarter-mile to pass all but Smooth Like Strait, and the added furlong here helps Say the Word. If my speed map proves accurate, that means Count Again drops to last and has to pass everyone, but I’ll play him to get that done.
Among North American grass horses, perhaps only Domestic Spending has a better closing kick than Count Again when the latter is on his game. At Churchill, where the pace created more of a muddling race, the jockey abandoned an outside move to dive toward the rail before the furlong grounds and Count Again is a horse who should be rallying straight north-south, no east-west thrown at him. He won the Seabiscuit last fall showing an excellent turn of foot in his lone Del Mar grass run, and I thought he got the better of Say the Word in a July 12 team drill over the Santa Anita training track.
Nassau
Jolie Olimpica has been heavily favored in five of her six North American starts and lost three times as the chalk. That was for a different trainer during the U.S. phase of her career, but while she gets back on Lasix while debuting for a new barn, this is a 5-year-old with no upside, and treating her skeptically still seems the way to go.
A year ago, Another Time went from a 7 1/2-furlong Woodbine turf allowance win in June to a game neck loss in the Nassau. She’s on the same pattern and will be worth a play at anything close to her 6-1 morning-line odds. Another Time is a 5-year-old but isn’t fully exposed on turf, where she’s raced only six times. She wasn’t the same horse when switched to Woodbine’s synthetic main track following her 2020 Nassau and appeared to be over the top back on turf in the fall. The mare has speed but can be rated off a front-runner, too, and stands a good chance of outrunning her odds.
Caress
Caravel might be a 7-5 shot on the morning line for this Saratoga turf sprint, but she’s not the favorite on the line and can at least be an anchor for late multi-race wagers. This 4-year-old filly showed high-level ability even in her career debut at Penn National, which she had no right to win. She hit a new level in her most recent start and traveled so strongly during the middle portion of that stakes, the race was over at the quarter pole.