Weekend GamePlan for July 23, 2022: Picks for United Nations, Coaching Club American Oaks, Caress

Since the world feels like it’s literally melting this summer, maybe cashing some bets provides cold comfort. But hey, in the face of potential global calamity, one takes what satisfaction life offers, right? Weekend GamePlan got hot the last two Saturdays. Let’s hope for some respite from the brutal heat outside while keeping things warm in this space.

United Nations

It’s Haskell Day on the Jersey Shore. Chad Brown trains favored Jack Christopher, and, following the “don’t take a short-priced favorite being asked to do something new” principle, I can’t back him in his two-turn debut. Taiba is mysterious: As documented earlier this week on DRF.com, his work pattern into this race looks unlike the tightly packed drills shown by trainer Bob Baffert’s recent Haskell winners. Talented Taiba is drawn inside at a short price himself. No, thanks. The Brad Cox-trained Cyberknife might not be fast enough – but also could be the value.

I’m passing the Haskell and looking to the race immediately before it, the United Nations, where the “other” Brown-trained entrant, Adhamo, gets my money.

Tribhuvan should be solidly favored for Brown and jockey Manny Franco, who rode him to a dominant victory last month in the Manhattan. There, and winning the 2021 U.N., Tribhuvan dictated a slow tempo from the start, and when this horse is in form and can control the pace, he’s very tough. That said, Tribhuvan never had run a figure as high as his Manhattan, where he was a ridiculously priced 19-1, and with regression possible at roughly one-tenth the odds, and a couple longshots to keep him honest on the lead, Tribhuvan can be beaten.

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Gufo merits consideration going back to three-turn racing for the fourth time in his career. His Breeders’ Cup Turf at three turns is best ignored, and Gufo beat a solid Aidan O’Brien horse, Japan, in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer going a furlong farther than this while racing around three turns at Saratoga. Still, Gufo hardly is the most reliable sort and he’s drawn poorly in post 10. Adhamo, who should be roughly the same price, has the rail, and gets a meaningful six pounds from Gufo and Tribhuvan.

Adhamo was left with too much to do before flying home into a tepid pace in the Fair Grounds Stakes, his North American debut, and he was one of many horses who hated the slippery, tricky grass course Derby week at Churchill. In the Manhattan, Adhamo rocked his final quarter-mile in 22.51 seconds despite being blocked in upper stretch. He came to the wire finishing faster than Gufo, will get first run on him Saturday, and with just a little help up front, Adhamo can upset Tribhuvan.

Coaching Club American Oaks

Remember when Secret Oath thumped Nest in the Kentucky Oaks? I do, but I’m not sure the betting public will have that top of mind when this pair meets again in the Coaching Club. Even at a short price, Secret Oath is the play over likely favorite Nest.

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Granted, Nest was hemmed inside while Secret Oath launched to the lead at the five-sixteenths pole in the Oaks, but Nest did save ground and got outside in upper stretch with time to reel in Secret Oath – which she did not. Secret Oath is some kind of handy filly, with push-button gears and, possibly, enough pace to race closest to likely leader Society (who has a good chance of outrunning her odds and Beyers). All credit to Nest for her Belmont Stakes second, but that 1 1/2-mile race on a huge oval better suits her capabilities than will this contest. Loved the video of Secret Oath’s final work for this – and love Secret Oath on Saturday.

Caress

Tobys Heart won her first Saratoga turf-sprint stakes start as an odd-on favorite, and she can win her second, the Caress, at much more appealing odds.

Tobys Heart has a grand total of zero defeats in her four starts at this 5 1/2-furlong trip. She’s not hapless going a mile, but this is what the filly does best. I won’t hold her troubled last-out seventh-place finish against her, and in her 2022 debut, Tobys Heart got stuck behind a false pace. Between those two races she closed into tepid fractions to beat the accomplished Change of Control, and on Saturday she’ll have a robust tempo at which to run.