Weekend GamePlan for July 18, 2020: Picks for United Nations, Coaching Club American Oaks, Monmouth Cup

A script telling Maximum Security’s tale would get rejected for implausibility.

From $16,000 maiden-claimer to disqualified Kentucky Derby winner. A brilliant win in the inaugural Saudi Cup, the richest horse race ever staged, followed shortly by an FBI sting leading to the arrest of his trainer. And now, his intended first start for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert delayed by a global pandemic.

Get outta here.

It was almost exactly a year ago that Maximum Security won the Haskell Invitational (don’t forget the bizarre element in that race, too, which was delayed from afternoon till evening because of heat), and while Maximum Security’s comeback run in the San Diego is on COVID-19 hold, the Haskell anchors an excellent Monmouth card that placed two races in this space. The Haskell, which isn’t one of them, will have Authentic as a favorite and universal wise guy alternative Dr Post a strong second choice. It lacks appeal, to me, as a betting proposition, as does the Hall of Fame at Saratoga, where Decorated Invader should win at microscopic odds.

United Nations

I don’t especially agree with the morning-line odds in this race, and one hope is that Standard Deviation, the horse I want to bet, will go off higher than 7-2. Arklow, despite racing Sunday at Keeneland, was a likely runner here as of Thursday, per DRF’s Jim Dunleavy, and it would be a good thing for other prices if he lines up.

Paret wired the Tiller Stakes at Belmont last out and is back again as lone speed; he’s to be taken seriously despite the highly unusual transformation from Australian sprinter to American stayer. But Standard Deviation doesn’t have to fall too far behind a slow pace – if you go back to his dirt career, even the Jersey Derby on this course last year, he’s got a touch of positional pace.

Standard Deviation’s showing in the Tiller had the look of a pure prep for this start, his second since Graham Motion took over training. He raced along leisurely, losing position past the three-furlong pole while already buried in the field, and seemed to be headed to a really poor performance when – voila – he took off at the three-sixteenths pole. His final furlong, 11:43, was the fastest clocked in that race, and the colt was doing it very easily. He’s 2 for 2 on the Monmouth lawn, and his second in Qatar to multiple Group 1 winner French King, a very legitimate horse who didn’t disgrace himself in the 2019 Arc, shouldn’t be overlooked.

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Coaching Club American Oaks

David Aragona, the respected NYRA linemaker, pegged Tonalist’s Shape at 9-5, and I think she can be at least that price, if not a tick or two higher. Her recent Beyer Speed Figures don’t stand out, Paris Lights looks like the “now” horse, and Baffert and Chad Brown have starters.

I strongly favor Tonalist’s Shape. Her Davona Dale, where she comfortably handled Spice Is Nice (a strong Belmont winner earlier this month herself, and surely bound for a graded stakes return), was the best single race among this bunch, and trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. is playing what looks like a really good card – blinkers on.

All Tonalist’s Shape’s works at Gulfstream are available on video and in only one of them did Joseph use blinkers. That was the June 28 drill, and the way Tonalist’s Shape jumped into that move compared to her non-blinkered breezes was truly remarkable. Video of her galloping Thursday at Saratoga provided further encouragement, and the filly is bred to stay the nine furlongs.

Monmouth Cup

We’ll go back to Joseph at Monmouth with Math Wizard, whom I fear won’t be as long as his 10-1 morning line in what appears to be a deep, competitive contest.

Math Wizard also has some equipment stuff going on; Joseph took blinkers off this colt to good effect last year but put them back on for his recent Gulfstream handicap start. If the idea was for the hood to get the horse into the action sooner, it worked, as Math Wizard showed improved speed and jumped on the leaders around the far turn. Now, he failed to finish the job there, but a one-turn mile is nothing like Math Wizard’s best game. This 1 1/8-mile, two-turn race is what he wants, and his high-water marks from 2019 – a second to Owendale in the Ohio Derby, the Pennsylvania Derby win, and even the Breeders’ Cup Classic fifth – say Math Wizard is plenty capable of taking home the Cup.