Weekend GamePlan for July 17, 2021: Picks for Diana, San Diego, Matchmaker
Nothing will ever be the same, really, after the global COVID-19 pandemic, but Saturday, July 17 almost feels like old times in horse racing.
We’ve got Saratoga, we’ve got Del Mar, we’ve got a 14-race Haskell card in steamy New Jersey, and we’ve got fans in the stands. Being disinclined to include heavy chalk in this space, the Haskell doesn’t make the cut, but I do strongly favor Hot Rod Charlie. Despite a gut-wrenching effort in New York, Hot Rod Charlie has put on weight since then, is training with true aplomb, and just really seems into the whole practice of being a professional racehorse. But he’s something around even money and we’ll look for juicier items on this full Saturday menu.
Diana
The Diana rarely disappoints. Somehow, this nine-furlong filly-and-mare grass contest consistently produces excellent fields, and 2021 is no exception. NYRA line-maker David Aragona pegs Lemista, Althiqua, and Harvey’s Lil Goil as the three shortest prices, and I don’t disagree, though the chance of rain through the afternoon is a confounding factor I wish we didn’t have to consider.
Perhaps because of my Bill Mott fanboy club membership, I’m a devotee of Harvey’s Lil Goil, but I don’t think she can quite finish with the likes of Althiqa and Lemista at 1 1/8 miles, though at 1 1/4 miles on firmer going, I might rate her. Yet I’ll side with “none of the above” in the Diana and play Summer Romance.
Summer Romance has raced but once in America, and you can see from her off-the-charts TimeformUS early pace rating (135) that she went at a cracking tempo in the Just a Game. That she set such a pace and held strongly for second behind her perfect-trip stablemate Althiqa speaks to Summer Romance’s quality, and I believe a two-turn, nine-furlong configuration better suits her than the one-turn Belmont mile.
Note that in Dubai earlier this year, Althiqa beat Summer Romance at a mile before Summer Romance turned the tables at 1 1/8 miles, and in the Diana, Summer Romance looks like the controlling speed. Godolphin and trainer Charlie Appleby are in the midst of an epic season, and the Godolphin assistant overseeing these fillies in New York went out of her way this week to tell DRF’s David Grening how well Summer Romance was training into this start.
San Diego
Isn’t Royal Ship, the likely favorite and starting San Diego highweight, prepping here for the Pacific Classic? That sure seems to be the case, and while Royal Ship gutted out a nine-furlong victory earlier this season, 1 1/4 miles seems his game, and I suspect he will not quite perform to expectations at this 1 1/16-mile trip. Express Train better suits the distance than Royal Ship, and his fondness for the Del Mar surface is duly noted, but I like Rushie to win this.
I think we saw in the May 31 Gold Cup what looked to be the case all along – that 1 1/4 miles is farther than Rushie wants to race. He was tried in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last season and one suspects that is the goal again this year at Del Mar, and where the San Diego is a stepping-stone race for other logical contenders, I believe it’s a touchstone race for the capable Rushie. This colt, training well from the look of workout video, has a pleasing forward style without having to be on the lead, and jockey Umberto Rispoli ought to take full advantage of his rail draw in this bulky field.
Matchmaker
Juliet Foxtrot didn’t run poorly last out in the Mint Julep, finishing more than two lengths clear of the decent Shesonthewarpath, but she was defeated as an odds-on favorite by a not especially fast mare coming out of allowance competition, and that after she held a clear lead at the furlong grounds. Six-year-old Juliet Foxtrot won a Grade 1 in April, but the fact connections are taking a Grade 3 route through the summer hints that Juliet Foxtrot has leveled off, if not come in decline.
Kalifornia Queen’s Beyer Speed Figures are low enough she might come up a fair price at post time, and I’ll play her to run down Juliet Foxtrot. A cut-back in distance and the addition of blinkers yielded a very encouraging allowance race victory last out at Belmont, and the 1 1/8 miles of the Matchmaker should hit Kalifornia Queen right between the eyes.