Weekend GamePlan for July 16, 2022: Picks for Diana, Sanford, Big Dreyfus

There were news stories this week remembering the famous New York City blackout of July 13, 1977. And there were racing stories this week talking about the brownout in the Diana Stakes at Saratoga.

The Diana, North America’s only Grade 1 on Saturday, drew six entrants, four trained by Chad Brown. Some folks have their hackles up over this, but it’s nothing new. Brown has been dominating and dictating filly-and-mare turf stakes all season – and this hardly is the first season.

Brown has trained the Diana winner six times and won five out of the last six renewals. He’s going to win another Saturday – maybe not with the horse you expect.

Diana

Bleecker Street has won the first seven starts of her career and, accordingly, is the 6-5 favorite on the Diana morning line. She overcame a slow pace, thanks to a recorded 21.83-second final quarter-mile, in the New York last month, and I can appreciate that performance and the filly’s impressive record while playing against her.

The New York was Bleecker Street’s first Grade 1, and even there, she beat horses who slot more comfortably into Grade 2 status. She’s won twice over this nine-furlong trip, but I don’t think the cutback from the 10-furlong New York helps her. Bleecker Street has run five times already this season and just hit a career peak. Now’s the time to cast a cold eye.

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I don’t believe, as the morning-line predicts, that among Brown’s other three In Italian will be twice the price of Rougir and Technical Analysis. The bloom came rapidly off Rougir’s rose in the New York after some anointed her the second coming following her win in the Beaugay – the Grade 3 Beaugay – where she beat Our Flash Drive. Brown cuts Rougir back a furlong, but her career peak came going 1 1/4 miles on soft ground in the Prix de l’Opera.

Technical Analysis got an easy lead in the Gallorette, where she bossed Crystal Cliffs, a very nice filly – not a Grade 1 filly. The Gallorette marked major second-after-layoff improvement for Technical Analysis, and I don’t see her coming forward again right now.

I’m all in on In Italian. Maybe its not fair to say she strictly was used as a pacemaker for Regal Glory in the Just a Game, but that absolutely was how the race played out. Instead of taking back four or five lengths off the furious pace set by Leggs Galore, In Italian stayed glued to her hip, and In Italian’s move came early, at the five-sixteenths pole. In Italian easily put away Leggs Galore but of course had little left when Regal Glory came calling.

Two races ago, In Italian was one of the only inside speed horses for two cards who raced with any effectiveness over a heavily outside-biased Churchill Downs course, and the Brown filly that beat her, Speak of the Devil, was incredible on the day. Yes, In Italian’s female family leans toward sprinter-milers, but sire Dubawi gives her stamina to see out this nine-furlong trip, especially since the filly, unless tactics get screwy again, is in for a favorable trip, either pressing Technical Analysis’s moderate pace, or going to the front and dictating tempo herself.

Sanford

It’s hard to believe the Sanford attracted a dozen entrants, but easy to believe Forte is a better colt than the other 11.

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One important number – 12.17. That’s how many seconds it took Forte to cover the last furlong of his debut win, and you don’t see many standout early-season 2-year-old winners accelerating to the finish. Early speed and deceleration rule in June short sprints, but Forte was just getting warmed up at the abbreviated trip. Trainer Todd Pletcher had a blowout 2021 Sanford winner in Wit, who won the same Belmont Park maiden race as Forte and improved several lengths second time out. I expect Forte to make a similar leap, stalk a strong pace, and win the Sanford, but fear he’ll do so at odds much lower than this morning line.

Big Dreyfus

The betting public figures to go hard for Petricor in this nine-furlong grass stakes, and while I won’t be surprised if Petricor wins, Bellagamba is the play. She never found room to operate at Hawthorne last out in a race where a deep closer whizzed past everyone with a clean outside run. The mare’s Argentine form suggests the move to nine furlongs here is a good thing, and she very much seems like a horse who could benefit from the addition of blinkers.