Weekend Gameplan for Jan. 8, 2022: Picks for Santa Ynez, Tropical Turf, and Pippin

A mere six stakes races appear on the calendar for Saturday, and actual stakes horses appear to be in hibernation.

Only the Turfway Park Prevue, where Nobals ought to win at a short price (unless his connections’ decision to run him back at Kentucky Downs one week after his sharp Arlington-Washington Futurity score has long-term consequences), drew more than seven entrants.

“Pass,” however, is not an option for Weekend Gameplan.

Santa Ynez

Only six fillies were entered in the first Southern California 3-year-old filly stakes of the year, and I’d imagine Under the Stars, for Bob Baffert and Flavien Prat, goes favored. She was, after all, 3-5 in her career debut, where she could not get up going six furlongs at Del Mar, beaten by Santa Ynez rival Awake at Midnyte, and 2-5 when she thumped 11 Los Alamitos maidens in a third-start victory. That was a very nice performance, done in hand and comfortably, and Under the Stars might prove better at this seven-furlong trip than the six furlongs of her two maiden starts. But she’s unlikely to make the front from this rail draw, her trip could turn tricky, and her margin for error – if she has one at all – is slim.

Awake at Midnyte’s Del Mar debut was fine, but nothing more exciting than that. She wore down the Baffert-trained Adare Manor (a sometime workmate of Under the Stars) after stalking a mild pace and emerging from between horses at the quarter pole. Fine, too, was her second start, a two-turn turf mile, where she missed by a nose in a stakes race of modest quality. So far, she seems more of a grinder than a filly with brilliance, and I’m not seeing a trove of upside on the day.

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There’s no logical path to victory for Big Shamrock, and Mimajoon looks like pace fodder. The removal of blinkers appeared to push Miss Mattie B to a peak last out, but I don’t see her reproducing that turf-route form in this dirt sprint.

That leaves Big Switch, who actually is a horse I like, rather than just a default selection. This filly is a giant, and huge gallops out in her first two starts strongly hint she’ll appreciate route racing, but Big Switch also has been very effective sprinting. Granted, she only beat California-bred stakes horses last out, but she was tons the best among that bunch in a field that wound up spread all over the track. Her solo workouts don’t catch the eye, but put Big Switch in company and she immediately perks up. And to my eye, she’s the leading light in this race.

Tropical Turf

Even with the Chad Brown-trained Value Proposition among the opposition, I fear Largent is going to be crushed in the win pool. But the Tropical Turf is part of a mandatory payout pick six as well as the late pick five, and a solid single here could help.

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Granted, Largent just got smoked by Colonel Liam in a Dec. 31 team workout, but Colonel Liam is a monster and works like one, too, and Largent has shown plenty of interest in the breezes for which there’s video. Two salient points about Largent: He loves the Gulfstream grass course, and he fires fresh, the latter obviously important for a horse away from racing nearly a year. There’s speed entered here to spread the field and give the jockey room to operate from post 1, and Largent should make short work of this bunch.

Pippin

I’m not buying that Coach will be as short as her 9-5 morning-line price in the Pippin Stakes, and with Miss Bigly, I could easily be landing on the chalk. Nevertheless, she easily is this race’s most likely winner and might offer fair odds, even as the favorite.

Miss Bigly won over this one-mile trip in her lone Oaklawn start and with three potential pace players entered has a chance to fall into a lovely stalking trip. She got too much of a hot pace last out in a one-turn Churchill mile, and two back ran a strong race finishing third with real trouble behind two Bob Baffert-trained horses who’d be odds-on favorites in this field. Miss Bigly’s work pattern since shipping to Oaklawn looks impeccable, and while the mare is a 6-year-old now, she appears to be at the peak of her powers.