Weekend GamePlan for Jan. 4, 2020: Picks for Sham, Mucho Macho Man, Kitten's Joy

Early steps are being taken toward the Triple Crown in Florida and California on this first Saturday of 2020, with the one-turn mile Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park and the two-turn mile Sham at Santa Anita. Both races drew short fields, but given a general dearth of stakes opportunities and the presence of some talented horses in each race, they made it into this edition of Weekend GamePlan. Only eight entered for turf in the Kitten’s Joy, also at Gulfstream, and we’ll take a swing there, too. No major price plays this week, but I will try to grind out a profit with three solid opinions.

Sham Stakes

As recently as a couple years ago, I probably would’ve sided with Azul Coast in the Grade 3 Sham. He’s obviously a route horse, and I’ve always been drawn to horses that stay over horses that sprint, and his debut victory at Los Alamitos was unquestionably remarkable. Steadied early while already at the back of the field, Azul Coast raced five or so paths wide around the first turn and only lost more ground from there to the finish. Granted, outside paths likely were preferred on that card, but there comes a point where the greater distance traveled is more important than finding preferred paths, and Azul Coast probably crossed that point. He still scored by four lengths.

But Bob Baffert debuted Azul Coast in a two-turn maiden race exactly because this son of Super Saver lacks speed. He also lacks zeal in his morning work, and Azul Coast might really find his niche when he gets out to nine-furlong races later this year.

The Baffert-trained Authentic will be a short price and is racing here off only a 5 1/2-furlong maiden win, but he’s the one I strongly prefer in the one-mile Sham. Azul Coast has worked in company his last two starts, but Authentic needs no workmate to throw down a very, very eye-catching morning drill. Yes, he only won over a short sprint first time out but watch closely and see a horse that barely is exerting himself much of that race. When Authentic kicked into another gear in midstretch, that maiden sprint was over. He galloped out like a colt who will route, and his works strongly suggest as much while making him look considerably more talented than Azul Coast or Taishan, another one-mile maiden winner in his most recent start.

Mucho Macho Man Stakes

There seems to be a widespread thought that Chance It will be a key player in the open 3-year-old division this winter in Florida. Maybe. I’m certainly not convinced off his solely restricted-race 2-year-old form. In any case, he hasn’t started since Sept. 28, missed an intended race, and has an inside draw as a front-running type in a pace-packed field. All that at a short price on a horse making his first open-company stakes start sounds like a bet-against opportunity.

Four alternatives came under consideration. Ashaar has a reputation and did win encouragingly first time out, but in his first two starts he lacked racing sense, and video of his recent work left me cold. As Seen On Tv has sprint speed and three good races to start his career, but though his sire, Lookin At Lucky, gets route horses, this colt at this stage of his career looks limited in distance. Sole Volante, albeit with a good setup, was very impressive jumping to a stakes race off a debut turf-route win, and while he’s by turf horse Karakontie, his only successful sibling, Explode, was purely a dirt horse.

While Sole Volante might handle dirt, South Bend definitely does, and drawn on the rail he can get an even better trip tracking what ought to be a strong early and middle pace. South Bend comes off a tiring sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs, and I’ll just draw a line through that two-turn, wet-track flop. He won the Street Sense after waiting patiently behind horses and along the rail, and from that race Silver Prospector returned to capture the KJC and Shotski to win the Remsen at Aqueduct. You could make a case South Bend is the most likely winner here, but he almost certainly won’t be bet that way.

Kitten’s Joy Stakes

Summer to Remember at his 6-1 morning-line odds in the Kitten’s Joy is an absolute pipe dream, but I’ll take him as the second choice to beat likely chalk Irish Mias. Summer to Remember ran into high-level Decorated Invader at Saratoga and won his comeback race far more impressively than the bare margin of victory. He has grown into a big, strong fellow!