Weekend GamePlan for Jan. 30-31, 2021: Picks for Robert Lewis Stakes, Sweetest Chant Stakes, Texas Turf Mile

Remember when people were toasting the end of 2020? Jury’s out, but so far, ’21 feels a lot like ’20. It’s almost like flipping a calendar doesn’t stop the actual world from going round.

Our calendars help measure and order but are built around deeper human cycles. Horse racing, if you follow it long enough, flows right alongside those cycles. This is winter, sure, but it’s a period of ferment and bursting life for horses, those being born and conceived on the farm, but also the fresh 3-year-olds, sorting themselves out as they grow from babies to fairly fully formed creatures, winter turning to spring.

We’ve got such sorting races in Florida and California on Saturday, the Holy Bull at Gulfstream and the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita. I focused on the latter in this space because it appears to pack more substance. In the Holy Bull, Prime Factor, who makes his second career start, probably will be favored over Greatest Honour, who lacks positional pace and probably wants nine furlongs and beyond. I’d be happy to stand against them if an appealing alternative emerged, but for me, one didn’t.

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Still, the three weekend plays are on 3-year-olds, including one on Sunday, when Sam Houston Race Park has a stakes-packed card worth handicapping.

Robert Lewis

This race tops the trio because it’s the most important, not because the pick and play is the most appealing this week. That horse is Sham Stakes runner-up Medina Spirit, the 5-2 morning-line favorite. Can’t see Medina Spirit going off much higher than 5-2, but could see him going off considerably lower, though for me he’s comfortably the most likely winner.

I don’t have anything strongly against Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Hot Rod Charlie, but the Juvenile race shape flattered him, and as his price goes from 94-1 to something like 3-1, I’d like Hot Rod Charlie to prove that one performance really represents him. His works have looked pretty good, not great, with the colt flashing some noteworthy speed between the furlong grounds and the finish, but not showing so much before or after.

In fact, I’d prefer trainer Doug O’Neill’s second entrant Wipe the Slate, who, to me, has a more appealing way of going and more upside. He also figures to settle into a favorable trip pressing outside Medina Spirit, who I think will just go forward from the rail and try to make all the running.

I think he can. His debut performance wasn’t spectacular but looked solid enough, and had he not been placed directly behind a struggling Life Is Good in the closing stages of the Sham, maybe he wins that race. He’s still a work in progress, coming through the stretch in races and works with his head turned to the stands, and he still looks somewhat green, though he comfortably took the measure of Lewis entrant Spielberg in a recent team workout. Unsurprisingly, he puts one in mind of his sire, Protonico, whose career-best Beyer, 107, came in the nine-furlong Ben Ali.

Sweetest Chant

White Frost made Daily Racing Form’s weekly “Breakout Beyers” fixture for her maiden win Nov. 21, as she moved many lengths forward making her first grass start. The assessment of her performance noted a turn of foot well above par for a 2-year-old maiden turf-route runner, and there should only be more to come as this filly matures and improves. She was very much flattered when the runner-up in that maiden race, Lijana, returned Jan. 16 at Fair Grounds with a smart turf-route maiden win over a solid field, and White Frost can handle this group with even a moderate step forward.

Texas Turf Mile

The morning-line odds for this race seem haphazard, and off a Beyer Speed Figure of just 74, Palazzi could go off higher than the listed 6-1. I’ve been waiting to play this colt back since he showed his grass potential in his turf debut Dec. 19 at Fair Grounds. One doesn’t see horses at any level, much less a 2-year-old maiden, make as sharp a move around the far turn as Palazzi put together that afternoon. Speed and athleticism got him into position by the three-sixteenths pole, and he had no trouble finishing the job from there. His connections sought a first-level allowance race but it didn’t fill – thus the gap between starts – but coming back in this $200,000 stakes just means Palazzi offers juicier win odds.