Weekend GamePlan for Jan. 25, 2020: Picks for Pegasus World Cup, Pegasus World Cup Turf, Fifth Season
Oaklawn springs back to life this week with a fine Saturday card, and after considerable stakes action across the nation Saturday, the Houston Ladies Classic and undercard races come Sunday at Sam Houston Race Park. Obviously, the hub of the racing world this weekend is Gulfstream Park, which hosts the first raceday medication-free Pegasus World Cup Invitational, so let’s start there.
Pegasus World Cup Invitational
Some will say the Pegasus lost its star when Omaha Beach was scratched Thursday. Others (raises hand) will say the Pegasus lost its attractiveness as a betting opportunity with the withdrawal of a colt who, while talented, had for some reason become the epicenter of an earthquake of hype. Omaha Beach was even-money on the morning line and not, from most appearances, faster than much of his competition, but, alas, that value-creating dynamic is gone now.
Fear not! We still have Mucho Gusto, who was listed as second choice on the line and would be, from this perspective, a shorter price worth opposing, chalk or not. Give me Higher Power over Mucho Gusto all day and every day, but Higher Power might prefer 10 furlongs to nine, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he winds up vying for favoritism.
Racing is a funny game, and if you’re betting, loyalty should mean nothing. The opposite holds, too, and if a horse you might have disdained in the past suddenly looks playable at the right price, by all means, climb aboard.
That, in a nutshell, is the relationship between me and Tax.
Tax, though, has continued to churn out solid performances. We don’t know what the ceiling is for Performer, the horse who beat him in the Discovery last fall, and Tax has the pedigree of a horse who should be better at age 4 than 3. Video of his recent workouts has impressed me. In his final drill for this start, Tax was nearly pulling his rider out of the irons to the wire. He could be sitting on a dream trip, saving ground while in the first flight behind the speed. He won’t be 8-1 with the favorite gone, but he still should offer fair value.
Pegasus World Cup Turf
This is a really interesting second renewal of the Pegasus Turf, and it doesn’t take long to notice the race is void of real pace players. That could make things tricky on the most accomplished horse entered, Magic Wand, who also is saddled with post 12 and almost certainly wants more distance than this. Mo Forza seems the likeliest candidate to go to the front, and, a 4-year-old on the come, he might be good enough to make a tactical advantage stick. But as good as Mo Forza looked at the end of last year, he beat only suspect 3-year-olds, and he hardly is going to be a long price making his first start with older horses here.
Without Parole figures to the shortest price of three Chad Brown-trained entrants, and while I was impressed with his Breeder’s Cup Mile performance, his first North American start and first race of any kind in more than five months, this is a much different sort of race than a Santa Anita mile over short-cut, very fast ground. Without Parole has older overseas form to support his quality, but I believe he’s underpriced here.
Sacred Life, another Brown entrant, should be the right price. He, like Magic Wand, has an outside draw and is at risk of a difficult trip from there, but at twice the price (or more) of Without Parole, I’ll take my chances. Four North American races, four strong performances, and the trouble he encountered last out at Del Mar was more significant than the short comment in his past performances suggest.
Fifth Season (2nd division)
It’s pretty clear M G Warrior was prepping for this start in his last-out comeback run at Fair Grounds. He’s come back with some strong works in New Orleans, won over this Oaklawn track for a different barn last year, and should get a favorable ground-saving setup from this rail draw – albeit at a price that might drop well below his morning line.