Weekend GamePlan for Jan. 2, 2021: Picks for San Gabriel, Mucho Macho Man, Ginger Brew

From isolation to vaccination, social distancing to civil unrest, 2020 felt like no other year in recent memory. The Triple Crown got strewn over several months, arrayed out of order. Yet through all that, a beacon of familiarity shown – Bob Baffert training North America’s best 3-year-old.

So, hello, 2021, and hello Life Is Good, the next prospective star sophomore chilling in Baffert’s Santa Anita barn. The heir apparent to Authentic got a form boost without racing when Wipe the Slate, runner-up to Life Is Good while beaten 9 1/2 lengths in their common debut, returned to win a recent maiden race of his own with an 88 Beyer Speed Figure.

Life Is Good looks too good at too short a price to consider backing in the Sham Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita, and there are some short fields in Gulfstream stakes, leaving a limited menu for this exercise. But three races, three plays we must find on the first Saturday of a new and hopefully far better year.

San Gabriel

October 9, 2019, watching Keeneland, and Count Again finished like a blur winning a Keeneland maiden race. At Fair Grounds sometime in November or December, I asked trainer Neil Howard what the future held for this horse, who hadn’t even debuted until the end of his 4-year-old season, but Count Again already had been moved to another barn.

He’s on his fourth trainer now, and Count Again, who just turned 6, appears to be at the height of his powers. After seven turf starts, he has yet to run anything but good races, and after taking things to a new level earlier this year at Woodbine, Count Again dazzled winning the Seabiscuit at Del Mar in his California debut and first start for trainer Phil D’Amato.

:: Get Brad Free’s Betting Strategies for Saturday’s card at Santa Anita

Two back, in the Northern Dancer, Count Again just didn’t quite stay 1 1/2 miles, but this nine-furlong trip probably suits him better than the 8 1/2 he got last out. The pace could be tepid here, and front-running Anothertwistafate could improve off his Seabiscuit showing, but Count Again just finishes too fast for these rivals, even off a modest tempo.

In a much shorter field, his trip should be easier than the last one, and I’ll take a long look at a D’Amato exacta with Bowies Hero potentially filling out the place slot.

Mucho Macho Man

I wrote a couple times before the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf that Mutasaabeq’s visually impressive win in the Bourbon Stakes this past October seemed more illusory than substantive, and Mutasaabeq ran to that assertion, going flat in the BC Juvenile Turf. Yet I like his chances back on dirt and cutting back to a one-turn mile here in the Mucho Macho Man. He’s listed as the 5-2 favorite on the track’s morning line, but the guess is Pickin’ Time winds up favored.

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What’s really remarkable given Mutasaabeq’s last-to-first Bourbon win going two turns on turf is how much speed he showed winning his career debut going 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt at Saratoga. I’d posit he bounced a bit off that sharp showing when a distant third in the Hopeful, and I’d further posit both the horses in front of him that day would, at their best, and at this one-turn mile trip, smash this field. Most appealing of all has been the look of this colt’s recent works, in which he has beaten up on some solid older horses while working in company at Palm Beach Downs. He’s sharp right now and ought to be able to tuck right in behind the speed, getting a favorable trip.

Ginger Brew

She’s last on this list, but I like Oyster Box best among these three plays.

This filly hit my radar in doing the weekly Breakout Beyers feature for Daily Racing Form, with her debut three months ago at Belmont really catching the eye. Oyster Box traveled strongly throughout and stretched beautifully through the final furlong and a half, and while that smart score came at six furlongs, what she’s really bred to do – and what her stride and comportment suggest she really wants to do – is run a middle distance around two turns.

That’s what she gets here, but, alas, I fear what we will not get is a price as high as Oyster Box’s 5-1 morning-line odds. She ran too well first out and appears to have worked too solidly for that kind of price, but I still expect something playable.