Weekend GamePlan for Jan. 15, 2022: Picks for Fifth Season, California Cup Oaks, Gasparilla
Three Santa Anita races came under consideration for this week’s stakes-handicapping exercise, but we’ll spread the wealth instead, with stops in Arkansas and Florida.
Fifth Season
I dove into this race with Silver Prospector on my mind, having noticed his sharp workout times at Fair Grounds several weeks ago and kind of figuring he was aimed toward this spot. But upon swimming through the data, I came up with the other Steve Asmussen entrant, the venerable Snapper Sinclair.
First, we have to talk about the presumed favorite, Concert Tour, who gave hints he might be a serious Triple Crown horse for 2021 before things really went off the rails. Concert Tour is 5-2 on the morning line, and if connections are high on him, he’ll be shorter than that.
It’s hard to imagine Mucho being as short as the 7-2 second choice (won’t Thomas Shelby fill that role?), but Mucho is a key to the way this race gets run. Thomas Shelby surely goes winging from the rail, and if Mucho, stretching out from sprints, doesn’t run with him, he can lead all the way, especially if the track is wet.
Concert Tour himself possesses ample speed, but will his camp want him battling on the lead first time back from such an extended layoff? That’s hard to see, and if Mucho latches onto Thomas Shelby, Concert Tour could fall into a sweet stalking trip, but I still don’t want him at the expected odds.
Snapper Sinclair might also find himself sitting pretty just behind dueling leaders, and his win price could be three times that of Concert Tour. Snapper Sinclair is a 7-year-old now, but he showed plenty of spark just three starts ago, running competitively with subsequent Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint runner-up Lieutenant Dan. Snapper’s BC Dirt Mile went wrong from the start (and he had no chance with Life Is Good in any case) and he clearly disdained the Tapeta last out at Turfway, his synthetic-surface debut.
Two winters ago, Snapper Sinclair was beaten a neck in a muddy Fifth Season renewal, and there’s ample evidence that the horse has a real fondness for the surface. Look for a bounce back to form at a fair price.
California Cup Oaks
The Fifth Season holds more general importance, so it went first, but Vivacious Vanessa in the California Cup Oaks represents my strongest opinion this week.
Not only did she rally from far back to win a two-turn Del Mar turf maiden in her career debut (“they” liked her, too, as she was just 3-1), she had to await room past the half-mile pole and again around the three-furlong marker, and her stretch run required two tight moves between rivals. All that, and she won geared down, going away, a performance much stronger than the bare speed figure.
I can understand why connections tried a lucrative Cal-bred dirt sprint stakes next out, but this filly looks more like a grass horse, and, all things considered, she ran just fine in the dirt race. Her work pattern since is excellent and the drills that are available on internet video provide further encouragement. Guessing Vivacious Vanessa takes some action but does not get bet below what I’d consider fair value.
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Gasparilla
Outfoxed is 2-1 on the Tampa morning line, but with Strategic Bird, Goddess of Fire, and even Devine Charger taking money, it’s fair to hope for something a little juicier than that.
Granted, Outfoxed’s two wins at age 2 came in heavily restricted competition, but even accounting for the class of the race, she impressed, especially in her seven-furlong Florida sire stakes romp. She easily won the rich two-turn dirt route to cap her campaign and might wind up a solid middle-distance type, but I liked her better in the longer one-turn race last year, and that’s what she gets to start her 3-year-old campaign.
Keep in mind she broke somewhat flat-footed first time out while chasing Echo Zulu, who will be named champion 2-year-old filly at the Eclipse Awards ceremony next month.