Weekend GamePlan for Feb. 27, 2021: Picks for Mac Diarmida, Razorback, Gulfstream Mile

Sure, it would be great to have playable opinions in the two most-anticipated races on this last Saturday in February, the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream and the Southwest at Oaklawn. But I don’t.

I do have opinions, just not actionable ones. Greatest Honour could conceivably turn out to be “the real deal” (second dam Better Than Honour can help with that), but for me, at this moment, his reputation has gotten far out in front of his actual accomplishment. Yet the Fountain of Youth, a soft spot, feels like the wrong place to take him on. Fire At Will has a solid chance to transfer his turf form to dirt, but, as with the favorite, he feels like negative value.

At Oaklawn, I’m not even sure that Jackie’s Warrior, who has a serious chance to beat champion 2-year-old Essential Quality, won’t actually be the post-time favorite. These both are exciting horses and I look forward to watching them race – but watching is all I plan to do.

Zofelle was to be the play against favored Got Stormy in the Honey Fox at Gulfstream, but Zofelle’s last work for this was bizarre. She started off right behind a workmate who was supposed to lead her to the finish and wound up falling farther and farther back, barely getting out of a gallop. Confusing.

Vequist has an air of vulnerability coming back from a winter break at a trip likely short of her best and with an irregular work pattern. Millefeuille probably just didn’t stay nine furlongs in the Demoiselle and rates an upset chance, but her work pattern has a gap, too.

Mac Diarmida

Realizing Admission Office is a classic “tease horse,” I think his connections fell into something when they stretched him out to races at 11 furlongs and beyond and really like him in the Mac Diarmida.

Admission Office ran too well to lose in this race a year ago, perhaps moving a touch early but still fighting it out to the wire with Zulu Alpha, the top turf horse in North America at the time. It seems certain this spot has been the goal through two races over shorter trips, and Admission Office flew home last out at Tampa Bay, showing his legs still have plenty of life at age 6. Trainer Brian Lynch conveniently has a pacemaker entered to keep Tide of the Sea honest, though the fear is Admission Office could go to post well short of his morning-line odds. I’ll play him to win at 3-1 or higher and hope Moon Over Miami can sneak into the exacta.

Razorback Handicap

I seriously doubt Silver Prospector has the inherent quality of Mystic Guide or Owendale, but I also firmly believe no trainer in America is better at getting a horse to peak in a specific spot than Steve Asmussen. This looks like the spot for Silver Prospector.

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How do we know? Asmussen said as much on the record before the Louisiana Stakes, Silver Prospector’s most recent start. The last time Silver Prospector hit a peak? Winning the Southwest on Feb. 17, 2020 at Oaklawn, a race in which he showed good positional speed behind a solid pace. I am hoping Ricardo Santana can work out that sort of trip again and keep lone speed Hunka Burning Love (dangerous in his own right) within range while getting first run on Mystic Guide and Owendale, both of whom could be shaking off rust after a winter break.

Gulfstream Park Mile

Has Eye of a Jedi gotten that good at age 6, or is 5-year-old Performer still being accorded respect by bettors that he hasn’t truly earned? Performer does get off the rail for the first time in three races, and yes, he is a nice horse, but I believe he’s worth opposing as the chalk.

Tax holds zero appeal for me, especially racing without Lasix, and if Phat Man were getting back to his Gulf form from a year ago, we should’ve seen more sign of that last out.

Fearless ought to be a fair price and I’ll try him fresh off a long break for trainer Todd Pletcher, a masterful layoff trainer. What happened to the speed Fearless showed early in his career (when he also displayed an affinity for the local dirt track)? I think we’ll at least see positional pace in this comeback run, and Fearless has been traveling nicely in his Palm Beach Downs works.