Weekend Gameplan for Feb. 26, 2022: Picks for Rebel Stakes, Wishing Well Stakes, and Wintergreen Stakes
We’re getting started early this Saturday. The Saudi Cup card kicks at 7:45 a.m. Eastern, the big race set for 12:35 p.m. I like Mandaloun to beat Mishriff with a hint of interest in Art Collector at a price. Opinions aside, the world’s richest race is well worth watching. We also get Letruska’s return in the Royal Delta at Gulfstream. I was itching to play against the mare, fabulous as she is, since her 2021 campaign ended so poorly and a campaign like she had (wonderful, amazing, no doubt) almost has to take a toll. But I can’t find anyone suitable to oppose.
Rebel
Whoever you come up with (I found the options sparse) Newgrange seems like a horse worth trying to beat. I think his win odds will go considerably lower than the 9-5 morning line, and Newgrange’s string of friendly trips likely ends here. He’s drawn inside and doesn’t look fast enough to clear the field. I think he’ll have to eat some dirt and settle behind and among other horses for the first time. Maybe he can do that, but this is hardly the most nimble and handy horse in the world. And while I’m not going to make too much of it, he did appear to get outworked by Doppelganger, fourth in the San Vicente, in his Feb. 19 breeze, where Newgrange’s head carriage looked higher than ever.
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You should watch Ethereal Road’s Jan. 29 maiden win. It’s hard to believe he came from that far back to win going away, and the horses that finished just behind him are not bad at all. But he’s off Lasix again now, and there’s a chance of rain. His wet-track route debut two back was nothing like his fast-track victory.
Speaking of horses that finished behind a last-out Rebel winner, Chasing Time looked so good in the final furlong of his Jan. 14 win in part because his rivals were not good at all. That was a soft spot, and I don’t think this colt will take another step forward right away.
I’m going with Barber Road, who lacks brilliance and would not rate near the very top of his class on raw talent. But this colt has shown great versatility, does something encouraging in every race, and always gallops out in front, for what that’s worth. Barber Road has the speed to have won over 6 1/2 furlongs, but in the Southwest (whether by design or not) wound up 11th of 12 in the early stages. He was very wide on the far turn as Newgrange got the jump on him, and Barber Road finished just as well as the winner. Barber Road has been racing steadily since October, but does his workout pattern since the Southwest suggest a horse tailing off? I didn’t think so, either. Barber Road to cut them down in the Rebel.
Wishing Well
It’s a funny situation with Tapwater. She wasn’t quite getting over the hump as a miler, so connections tried her at 11 and 12 furlongs, where she raced competitively. But what Tapwater might really have wanted was a turnback in distance. That’s what it looked like Jan. 9 in the Las Cienegas, where she nearly ran down Zero Tolerance, who would be favored were she part of the Wishing Well.
There’s ample pace entered to ensure a fair tempo, which Tapwater will require to get up, and video of three workouts since the Las Cienegas offered strong hints that this mare continues to thrive.
Wintergreen
Breeze Rider has been on an amazing run, five wins from her last seven starts including three stakes. All credit to horse and connections, but Breeze Rider has gotten dream trips her last three wins, coasting on easy leads under an ace front-end jockey, and I do not see her going clear in the Wintergreen without having to work.
I gave strong consideration to Rogue Too, who had a bad trip two back in a comeback race and ran well last out considering she’s not a sprinter, but she’s a 6-year-old; I’ll try the lightly raced 4-year-old Natalies Charm.
This filly, like Rogue Too, is not a sprinter and in that light her comeback run two back shouldn’t be held against her. She had to cope with a loose horse when stretched to her first Tapeta route Jan. 14 and still won easily. I think there’s early pace to spread the field and allow her to find a spot from post 11. I’m hoping for another improved performance at a price.