Weekend GamePlan for Feb. 15, 2020: Picks for Mineshaft, Pelican, Dixie Belle, and General George

By rights, one should come up with a play in the signature race (races, actually) of the weekend, the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star, the prep for the Louisiana Derby that attracted so many entrants it was splint into two divisions. Instead, I’ll just talk about those races because I don’t have a substantive enough opinion in either to plot a play.

If I were going to tout one Risen Star horse it’d be Silver State in race 12, the first and seemingly tougher division, but I fear he’s going to be bet below his 4-1 morning line, and while improvement should be expected from a number of angles (fourth career start, second route, fairly difficult journey in last, plus his talent), I can’t get that deeply behind Silver State at the expected price. Blackberry Wine is “fastest” on the figures, but I’m skeptical he runs right back to his Jan. 18 number under a more demanding pace dynamic and against generally better horses than the one (Digital, who might not stay) he had to fight off last time. Enforceable just had his forward jump at 6-1 in the Lecomte, and there’s no way I want a piece of him a month later at roughly half that price.

As for the second division, race 13, Anneau d’Or figures too good for this group and is likely to work out a lovely trip, provided he leaves the gate decently. He looks like a 6-5 shot from here, so no interest in opposing or supporting.

A bunch of short fields Saturday stakes tamped down the races from which to choose, but here we go . . .

Mineshaft Stakes

Let’s start with this: The Saturday morning lines for the Fair Grounds card on the whole look solid, but the forecast price on Pirate’s Punch, 10-1, almost certainly misses the mark. If I could lock in 4-1 for the Mineshaft Stakes there’d be no hesitation.

:: To stay up to date, follow us on: Facebook | Instagram | Twitter

It’s understandable if you view Pirate’s Punch’s last-start blowout as fluky, and sure, he’d never run that proficiently before. But since Pirate’s Punch joined Grant Forster’s barn last year, and Forster began racing him without blinkers, Pirate’s Punch has tacked on an improving trend line. He ran a pretty good number at Keeneland in October and has enough of a fall 2019 foundation that he need not bounce off the Jan. 16 tour de force. There, Pirate’s Punch set a legitimately fast pace, really stretching his rivals out with a fast run around the far turn before coasting to victory.

The more one looks at the Mineshaft, the more it seems he’ll have the speed to make the front and get to the fence before hitting the turn, and this 4-year-old has all the upside on 6-year-old morning-line favorite Silver Dust.

The Mineshaft is part of a Pick 4 spanning races 7 to 10, and I’ll single Pirate’s Punch in case he’s bet down to unappealing win odds.

Pelican Stakes

Could lightning be in the process of striking twice for owner Raymond Mamone and trainer Luis Carvajal, the connections that have brought us the wonderful sprinter, Imperial Hint?

It can’t be ruled out because Debbie’s Passion looks quite talented. That fourth-place finish last March at Tampa in the $113K Sophomore Stakes wasn’t bad at all for a second-time starter cutting back to a sprint from a mile debut, and Debbie’s Passion must’ve been turning heads during morning training to take the kind of action he did at Monmouth and Parx this past September and October.

Granted, Debbie’s Passion got favorable race flow both those starts, but he clearly made the most of it, cruising to a geared-down Parx allowance win when moving up from the maiden ranks. The Dec. 21 to Jan. 18 gap in works is noted but is short enough that whatever precipitated it likely was minor, and Debbie’s Passion has strung together four more encouraging Tampa drills. The pace dynamics could work in his favor here and the price could rise higher than the 6-1 morning line.

Dixie Belle

Wouldn’t normally include a five-horse field in this space, but I’m eager to tackle likely odds-on favorite Specially. She got a clear outside trip facing only two overmatched foes in an off-turf first-level allowance contested over Fair Grounds slop last time, a performance that probably makes Specially look more special than she is. The figure was pretty quick for a three-week turnaround and here, stretching out an added half-furlong, Specially must cope with the rail draw.

Trainer Mac Robertson has two, and I prefer Sassy Seneca over Ring Leader, though I expect the betting public to have things the other way around. Ring Leader won well on a wet Oaklawn track showing a lot of speed and she ought to make things rough on Specially after breaking right next to her. Sassy Seneca showed speed in her two starts at Canterbury Park, where she was the best 2-year-old of either sex in 2019 but look for her to pop into the garden spot and sit outside and just behind the speed. I like the work pattern for this filly and keep in mind her speed figures are those of a late-summer 2-year-old, something on which to build this winter and spring.

General George (extra special bonus race!)

The headliner on a solid multi-stakes card at Laurel, the Grade 2, $250,000 General George should have Firenze Fire as something like a 3-5 favorite, but I’ll take him on with Tiz He the One, one of two entered by trainer Linda Rice. It feels like Rice’s other horse, Wicked Trick, will take more action than Tiz He the One, but I prefer the latter and think he could upset Firenze Fire - if he runs. DRF’s David Grening reported that Rice is considering scratching Tiz He the One, which is why this race is appended to the Weekend GamePlan main three.

Granted, Firenze Fire’s seven-furlong starts have come against competition stronger than this, but in my mind, he remains a horse best at six furlongs, and Belmont is easily his favorite track. Firenze Fire has never been to Laurel and might not have the kind of edge on his General George rivals his price would suggest.

Tiz He the One loves Laurel. He’s got five wins and two thirds over the local surface, earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure two falls ago, and was a comfortable restricted stakes winner at this trip in September. His journey Jan. 18 in what looked like a race to shake off rust was claustrophobic, and I’d expect Tiz He the One to take a step forward Saturday.