Weekend GamePlan for Feb. 12, 2022: Picks for Sam Davis Stakes, Sweet Life Stakes, Bayakoa Stakes

We’ve had a fallow spell of Weekend Gameplan winners this winter. There have been some close calls, some tough trips, some flat-out no-shows. It’s a game of cycles, we all know that, and there will be a time of plenty again – hopefully this week!

Sam Davis

The Kentucky Jockey Club might’ve been superior to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2021. Corniche, the Juvenile winner, hasn’t even worked this year, and the horse he beat, Pappacap, only was third in the Lecomte. Juvenile third Giant Game laid a giant egg last Saturday in the Holy Bull. Meanwhile, White Abarrio, third in the KJC, came back to easily win the Holy Bull; KJC seventh-place finisher Call Me Midnight upset the Lecomte; and the KJC fourth Ben Diesel was a respectable third in the Southwest. Now, we have two more out of the KJC in an engaging renewal of the Sam Davis – second-place Classic Causeway and fifth-place Howling Time.

Classic Causeway is 3-1 on the morning line, but I think he’ll be a much stronger favorite. He crushed the good colt Trafalgar in an eye-catching career debut at Saratoga and was undone in the Breeders’ Futurity by post 13, which forced him to be used too hard. His KJC showed he need not lead to succeed, and while no match for Smile Happy, Classic Causeway did run admirably in defeat. I could only find one online workout video for Classic Causeway, from Jan. 16, but the pattern looks reminiscent of the one he brought into his debut.

Classic Causeway, in other words, ought to be formidable. However, he has drawn post 3 with quite a bit of pace lined up outside him, and perhaps the colt, making his first start in 2 1/2 months, will be too fresh to rate comfortably. There’s also always the chance that a horse so quick to develop at age 2 doesn’t have as much room for development as others here who showed less last year, and taking these considerations into account, and at his expected price, I’ll try to beat Classic Causeway.

Make It Big traveled beautifully through the early stages of the Springboard Mile last year at Remington Park, but wound up having to really work to beat Osbourne, who showed little running back this year at Oaklawn. Howling Time got used in the KJC pace and can do better, but I’m not going there, and New York-bred Shipsational figures to be a pace casualty.

Golden Glider is one of three here for trainer Mark Casse, and I really like this colt even at something less than his 12-1 morning line. His career debut in November on the Tapeta at Woodbine was a truly exceptional performance from a first-time starter in a route race. Golden Glider was forced to settle back in last in a 12-horse field when other horses broke in front of him, angled out around traffic coming into the stretch, and still won under wraps. He obviously deserved a chance on dirt, and he got that chance in a mile and 40-yard allowance at Tampa in his second start. He appeared to resent kickback early, settled into a good rhythm, and showed a turn of foot like the one he’d displayed on Tapeta. Golden Glider pulled himself up once that turn of foot had carried him to the lead, but I seriously doubt that if he hits the front at all in the Sam Davis, he’ll do so before the very late stages. The work pattern encourages and Golden Glider brims with upside.

Sweet Life

I guess Ouraika might be favored here shipping west for trainer Graham Motion. She finished second in an allowance sprint on turf against males in New York last out, but the horse that beat her, Pure Panic, showed little in the Jan. 30 Texas Turf Mile. Ouraika looks like much of this field, decent but not especially advanced, and the Sweet Life seems ripe for an upset.

Ellamira only faced Cal-breds last out, but she might have won that race, a solid renewal of the one-mile Cal Cup Oaks, if not for compromising trouble at the furlong grounds. She traveled sweetly in that race, her turf debut, which was no surprise since her sire is Street Boss, and Street Boss might well be the best turf sprint sire in America. Cutting back to the downhill course, Ellamira gets a shot at a price.

Bayakoa

I liked Mariah’s Princess in the Bayakoa when it got canceled last Saturday and like her even more this week since she has been based at Fair Grounds and, unlike the Oaklawn horses, missed no training time there. This filly has shown talent all along, but took things to a new level last out in her first route try. Likely favorite Coach’s recent peak form was achieved on wet tracks, and Mariah’s Princess might be the better filly.