Weekend GamePlan for Feb. 1, 2020: Picks for Holy Bull, Withers, San Pasqual

It’s a solid Saturday of winter stakes action across America, with an emphasis on the 3-year-olds.

I’m very interested to see Taraz make her two-turn debut at Oaklawn in the Martha Washington Stakes, but not very interested in betting her at something like 1-5. If she does anything to these fillies like what she did to her opponents in a Churchill maiden race and in the Letellier Stakes at Fair Grounds, her connections could take a shot against males in the Rebel Stakes.

For me, the most promising of the 3-year-old males racing Saturday is Thousand Words, who goes in the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita. He’s also an odds-on favorite and the logical alternative is his stablemate High Velocity, who figures a strong second choice.

The grass stakes at Gulfstream Park hold some appeal, but a rainy forecast dampens wagering enthusiasm.

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Holy Bull Stakes

Maybe Tiz the Law just wins this as a “he’s simply better than them” kind of horse; there’s not much doubt his Champagne was the best single race any of these horses has run. But the Champagne was one turn, as was his sharp debut victory, and Tiz the Law, albeit with a somewhat challenging inside trip, didn’t show any of the same stretch spark making his two-turn debut in the Kentucky Jockey Club. His connections apparently want to get a line right away on whether this is a Triple Crown horse or a one-turn specialist, and at heavy favoritism I’ll guess he’s the latter.

Louisiana-bred Relentless Dancer has impressed, but he’s coming back from an unintended winter break at a true route trip perhaps beyond his best and is liable to get hooked into a pace battle with Ete Indien and Clear Destination.

Toledo, my top selection, was unable to get to Ete Indien in their common recent Gulfstream start, but Ete Indien, racing on the lead, had the much better trip in that one-turn allowance race, a start trainer Chad Brown likely was using as a Holy Bull prep for Toledo. Toledo has made steady progress through his three races, and while he saved ground and got through in his Aqueduct maiden win, he showed some grit there before galloping out well in front, as he did in the Gulfstream start. He’s a smallish colt but the pedigree gives every indication he’ll see out this trip nicely, while video of his post-allowance race workouts provides further encouragement.

Withers Stakes

Shotski looks like the horse to beat in the Withers, with some decent earlier form backing up his last-out course-and-distance win in the Grade 2 Remsen. Still, Shotski was nearly 9-1 in the Remsen, where he got a very easy lead and had to hold on to beat Ajaaweed – a colt I somewhat like – and here is 2-1 on the morning line while facing a very different pace dynamic. Shotski might be just fine coming from off the pace, but, you know, let’s see him do it.

Portos is 3-1 on the line after a 10 1/2-length course-and-distance maiden win last out, but that was one of the less impressive blowout 3-year-old maiden special weight scores you’ll see. Portos is a plodder of high order and might’ve moved up on a wet track.

Max Player, the pick, has a lot to learn. He carries his head too high, and in his debut especially appeared to resent kickback. But once Max Player finds his stride, he goes on nicely, and even in his debut, where he had basically an impossible trip, he nearly won and quickly galloped out well in front. He was hard ridden early to keep up, which I think worked against him, and was very wide on the far turn in the last-out Parx maiden win. Nine furlongs with a strong pace could really suit this potential improver, and we’ll hope for something closer to 6-1 at post time.

San Pasqual Stakes

Restrainedvengence ran strong races last year at Emerald Downs, where a tough post and a poor start probably cost him a victory in the Longacres Mile, and at Zia Park, where he totally dominated a nine-furlong dirt stakes, same conditions as the San Pasqual. That’s good news! John Q. Bettor tends to downgrade performances at lesser tracks when a horse comes back to race at a major venue, and from here it sure looks like Restrainedvengence fits this spot better than anyone. He led last time but can take back and stalk a face pace, and the guess is he comes back from a two-month layoff in the same form he went into it.