Weekend GamePlan for Dec. 9, 2021: Picks for Tropical Turf, Las Cienegas, La Canada

Next Saturday, Jan. 16, comes the first semi-important card of 2021, the Road to the Derby Kickoff Day at Fair Grounds, a multi-stakes extravaganza featuring the Lecomte Stakes, the two-turn debut for the promising Juddmonte Farms homebred Mandaloun.

This weekend comes a minimal national stakes schedule, with just a handful of black-type races on the North American menu. Still, the three graded stakes all hold some degree of appeal.

Tropical Turf

This renewal of the Tropical Turf lost some it’s appeal with the news Friday that Analyze It would be scratched. I didn’t like Analyze It here, in good part because of a recent three-week gap in published works that might be related to the quarter crack that reportedly will keep him from starting, and his presence as the 2-1 morning-line favorite had much to do with liking this race as a betting proposition.

Using the morning line, Analyze It’s scratch moves Admission Office, listed as the 7-2 second choice, as the presumed favorite, but I don’t think there’s any way this horse goes favored. Admission Office’s long-awaited breakthrough win came when he was stretched to 1 1/2 miles in the Louisville Stakes, a race last June that’s his most recent.

If I’m playing a deep closer here, I’d prefer Doctor Mounty at a long price, but after parsing the Doctor’s form, I don’t see that he has much of a win chance. Casa Creed drops from the Breeders’ Cup Mile, where, admittedly, he lacked spark while getting a decent trip, but his 8-1 morning-line price, especially vis a vis the odds on Admission Office, seems much too high. This race is going to suit him a lot better than the BC Mile, and he could trip out nicely from an inside draw. While failing to win in five 2020 starts, Casa Creed still hit a new, higher level, and he has done good work over the Gulfstream course.

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But I’ll side with Frostmourne. This gelding’s owner, Green Lantern Stable, helpfully posted an online update on Frostmourne following his long-layoff comeback win in a Churchill allowance race last November. Frostmourne had breathing problems and underwent surgery to fix them, but the surgery led to upper respiratory problems and eventually was reversed. Soundness, the report said, never had been an issue.

Frostmourne didn’t beat a lot at Churchill, but what there was in the race he pummeled with an eye-catching display of ratable turf speed. The performance harked back to his glory days as an excellent 3-year-old, and Frostmourne soon after was sent to South Florida, keeping to a solid work pattern since arriving. The lone workout video posted, of his Dec. 22 drill, was very encouraging. I want him to outrun Tusk for the early lead and cruise along as he pleases, even if it means going fast, because I think Frostmourne is ready for something serious.

Las Cienegas

Jolie Olimpica, last seen turning in a fine Grade 1, one-mile performance in July at Keeneland, will be favored here over Oleksandra. Both these mares are very, very good, and six furlongs suits them. Oleksandra was rushed to make the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint while coming back from a splint injury, and while I can forgive her that loss, she is, after all, a 7-year-old whose best races likely are behind her. As for Jolie Olimpica, yes, she is a turf horse, and her dirt works must be seen in that context. That being said, video of several recent breezes did little for me.

:: Get Brad Free’s Betting Strategies for Saturday’s card at Santa Anita

I’ll try to beat this pair with Lighthouse, who just turned 4 and looks especially progressive. Lighthouse has done little wrong in the turf-sprint portion of her career. She has won two of her last three starts, and might have won all three with a better trip at Del Mar. She’s turned in some energetic dirt drills while on a good work pattern leading to her first start since a dominant win at Kentucky Downs, and Lighthouse might be good enough to post a minor upset.

La Canada

Quietly, Hard Not to Love showed in her final start of 2020, the Zenyatta Stakes, that she actually can get two turns. She was closing on Harvest Moon through the final furlong despite, shall we say, a curious trip, and in her final work for this start, Hard Not to Like galloped out like a mare ready to do some real running. On paper, at least, there’s other pace to keep favored Fighting Mad from controlling the tempo, and Fighting Mad showed vulnerability in her final start of 2020.