Weekend GamePlan for Dec. 4, 2021: Picks for Cigar Mile, Claiming Crown Distaff Dash, Holiday Inaugural

Gulfstream Park might have needed a supplementary racing office crew just to handle all the entries on Saturday’s Claiming Crown card. The entry box overflowed, and we definitely are making a stop in South Florida during Saturday’s tour of North American stakes racing.

A more important (and more sparsely populated) card comes far up the Atlantic Coast at Aqueduct, host of the Cigar Mile, one of the final Grade 1’s of the season, as well as the Remsen and the Demoiselle. Mo Donegal briefly came under consideration for a play in the Remsen, but he’s 8-5 on the morning line and anything approaching that price would lack any sort of appeal.

Cigar Mile

Speaking of prices, if Americanrevolution really is going to be 5-2 here, it creates value on the rest of the plausible winners. All credit to a solid 3-year-old, but he was left reeling by open competition in the Pennsylvania Derby, and that 108 Beyer last time came facing soft competition on a wet track. This New York-bred strikes me as more plucky than brilliant and I’m happy to play against him as he cuts back to a much faster-paced, one-turn mile.

In fact, several entrants seem unlikely to reach recent peak form. Independence Hall does appear to have improved with the addition of blinkers, but backs up to a one-turn mile from two-turn trips that likely better suit him, and his last-start breakthrough came on a sloppy track.

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Ginobili’s last three races tower above the rest of his career; all came at Del Mar, and trainer Richard Baltas over the last five years in graded dirt stakes in the East and Midwest is 2 for 21.

Code of Honor continues producing evidence that he’s not capable of hitting peak form racing without Lasix.

Even without these negatives I’d accord Following Sea a strong Cigar chance, and with them, he’s an even more appealing play, though perhaps at a price lower than the 5-1 morning line.

The rail draw was a tough spot for Following Sea in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint over a six-furlong trip he can handle but that might be slightly short of ideal. A slightly flat-footed break did him no favors, and after stalking the leaders, the inside hole he went for in upper stretch closed, costing Following Sea momentum in a race dominated by two horses traveling on outside paths.

In terms of his Cigar candidacy, it’s a plus that Following Sea didn’t have a chance to run especially hard at Del Mar, and if he breaks alertly from the fence, this talented colt will have a chance to wire the field at a fair price.

Claiming Crown Distaff Dash

Running Memories is a strong play in this huge field, though I suspect her merits might prove a little too obvious, causing her price to fall below truly fair value.

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What could produce playable odds are two poor running lines from her last three starts, but both those races are eminently excusable. Never hesitate to ignore a subpar showing from a horse trying Euro-style Kentucky Downs for the first time, as Running Memories did while racing without Lasix in her most recent start. And three races back, Running Memories, a turf horse through and through, was rained onto dirt.

This filly has successfully raced on the lead but has shown pressing and closing dimensions, too, which could come in handy in this spot and might actually be a better style for her. I thought Running Memories might have lost focus and idled when nailed two back at Monmouth Park by the very capable Introduced. Running Memories is proven over the local course and won’t have to lose ground after breaking from post 4.

Holiday Inaugural

Another strong opinion: Bullseye Beauty, who might not even be favored in this six-panel Tapeta dash, though she deserves to be.

Bullseye Beauty romped in her career debut, her lone try over the Turfway surface, and is 2 for 2 in synthetic-surface races. She’s not hapless in routes but her four sprints have been considerably better than her two-turn starts, and off a fine second-place Keeneland turf-sprint finish, Bullseye Beauty is set to move forward and win, hopefully at something close to the 7-2 morning-line price.