Weekend GamePlan for Dec. 26, 2020: Picks for American Oaks, Tropical Park Derby, Lady of Shamrock

Well, here we are, last Saturday of 2020, our year of discontent, and for all that is troubling in the world, the day after Christmas is a gift for horseplayers and racing fans.

Stakes racing abounds from coast to coast, with multi-stakes programs at Laurel, Gulfstream, and Fair Grounds, all of those overshadowed by a gilt-edged program at Santa Anita.

Surely the matchup of the day there is Nashville versus Charlatan in the Grade 1 Malibu, and while Charlatan’s workout video literally made me babble excitedly at my laptop screen, I can’t get parimutuelly involved in short price against short price there. Secret Keeper’s Raven Run excursion seems like a toss, and she tempted in the La Brea, but I’m concerned that Finite will prove too tough.

Two of the other Santa Anita stakes made this week’s slate of plays, and we’ll go to Gulfstream for a refugee from the Triple Crown trail going back to what he really wants.

American Oaks

I really like Capital Structure here, and even though Joel Rosario rides her for Chad Brown, I still think she can offer a touch of value.

Sharing clearly is the most accomplished horse in this race, and maybe she’s superior enough to win regardless, but I won’t be the only one questioning her suitability to a distance as long as 1 1/4 miles. Yes, Sharing comes out of a legitimate Grade 1 race against older females and none of her foes has come close to facing that sort of competition, much less holding her own in it, but distance can be a great equalizer.

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It’d be nice if Brown’s other starter Duopoly took more betting than Capital Structure, and that could happen. Duopoly has the higher speed figures, comes out of stakes while Capital Structure makes her stakes debut, and she, too, has a popular jockey named. Duopoly will go forward, and if she’s allowed to just gallop around the oval, that could be trouble for my play.

Capital Structure, however, ripples with upside. Loved the look of her Oct. 25 allowance race at Belmont and a recent workout video presents even more visual appeal. This filly’s legs go on forever; she seems built for races at 10 to 12 furlongs. She has taken restraint, while really wanting to run, in her last race and in the recent available works, then really strode out beautifully when given her head. The guess is we see a serious jump to a new top here, and that it’ll be good enough to notch a Grade 1 win in her first crack at stakes racing.

Tropical Park Derby

I will take trainer Patrick Biancone’s remarks about Sole Volante being 80 percent fit for the Tropical Park Derby with a boulder-sized grain of salt. After all, this colt worked six furlongs in 1:11.40 (if not faster) without being asked for a lot on Dec. 20.

This is quite a field for a $75,000 purse, and even though Sole Volante drops from the Kentucky Derby, he still ought to be a fair price with Colonel Liam and Fancy Liquor taking quite a bit of play. I’ve been waiting months for Sole Volante to get back on turf. It’s understandable when connections try to fit a talented turf horse into dirt racing when given the chance to get to the Triple Crown, but while Sole Volante ran well enough on dirt, he’s a natural turf horse. Beyer Speed Figure-wise, he earned the top 2-year-old grass number in 2019, an 89, and even his career debut presented a tour de force of grass acceleration.

Lady of Shamrock

The de facto style of training French racehorses is teaching the animals to switch off, to relax under their rider and finish with aplomb. Those lessons escaped French import Miss Extra when she was ambitiously spotted in the Del Mark Oaks for her U.S. debut. Miss Extra pulled and pulled early in the race, and after getting clear of traffic that twice blocked her path, she lacked late zip.

Trainer Richard Mandella clearly regrouped, giving this filly time, plenty of work (good, solid dirt works, too), and Miss Extra also races on Lasix for the first time. Her win in the Group 2 Prix Sandringham marks her as a potential standout against most in this field, and cutting back from 10 furlongs to one mile is a plus.

Warren’s Showtime could be a formidable foe, but she is drawn wide while making her 10th start of 2020, circumstances that could produce a performance below her turf peak.