Weekend GamePlan for Dec. 21, 2019: Picks for Mr. Prospector, Tenacious Stakes, and Sugar Bowl

A paucity of North American stakes opportunities this pre-Christmas Saturday, and a wet forecast in New Orleans, where Fair Grounds hosts the best card of the weekend, could turn things murky. It’s downright icy at Aqueduct for the Queens County Stakes, which is too confusing to get seriously involved, and a decent chance of rain at Gulfstream Park complicates things in the Mr. Prospector Stakes, which has a short but select field.

Nonetheless, passing is not an option in this space, so . . . onward.

Mr. Prospector Stakes

Imperial Hint beat the pants off Diamond Oops in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt Stakes this past summer at Saratoga, but I’ll take Diamond Oops to reverse that decision and upset the Mr. Prospector.

Trainer Luis Carvajal Jr. maintained the minor ailment that led to Imperial Hint’s scratch from the Breeders’ Cup Sprint wouldn’t have compromised his performance, and I’m not holding that against him. There are other reasons to think twice at the price.

Imperial Hint is a three-time winner at seven furlongs but make no mistake – at heart he’s a six-furlong horse. He’s drawn inside other speed in a spot where taking back and coming around wouldn’t be ideal, and he might be forced to slug things out on the pace and hope to scrape by on heart and class. We are talking here, remember, about a horse on the cusp of turning 7, one that has been prone to throwing the occasional clunker.

X Y Jet is about to turn 8 and really wants no part of seven furlongs against horses of comparable quality. I can’t have him, and after kicking the tires on Lasting Legacy, another Jason Servis move-up horse, I decided to leave him on the lot. The peak form all came going six panels at Monmouth, and Lasting Legacy refused/declined to change leads in either of his last two starts.

Keep in mind that Diamond Oops ran into perhaps the best sprint performance of the year when Imperial Hint thumped him at Saratoga, and on a biased day when wider was better, Imperial Hint came outside Diamond Oops, who gets credit for burying sprint monster Mitole there, even if Mitole had an off day while bogged down at the fence. I couldn’t understand why Diamond Oops’s connections chose the Shadwell Turf Mile over a Keeneland dirt sprint stakes, though the horse validated their choice, and in the end, I don’t think he wanted any part of a two-turn mile at Santa Anita. Seven furlongs around one turn seems ideal, and Diamond Oops can get the right trip at the right price.

Tenacious Stakes

Fist thing to note: Tenacious selection Blended Citizen seems highly unlikely to go off at a price nearly as high as his 5-1 morning line. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see him favored, but if that’s the case, he’ll be tepid chalk.

No strong idea why Blended Citizen, who won the Peter Pan encouragingly two springs ago before flopping in the Belmont, was kept on turf all this year until winding up in the Brad Cox barn this fall, but the switch to dirt last out yielded immediate returns. This is just a 4-year-old with limited main-track exposure, and Blended Citizen has worked encouragingly for this modest class rise to an ungraded stakes race. Early trouble last time placed him farther off the pace than need happen here, and it’s hard to see a horse stealing off to an easy lead. Another forward move seems entirely reasonable, and it wouldn’t take a major one to beat this bunch.

Sugar Bowl Stakes

Gold Street is the 2-1 morning-line favorite for the Sugar Bowl Stakes, but it won’t come as a surprise if flashy debut winner Shashashakemeup takes at least equal action in this six-furlong race for 2-year-olds. At those relative prices, I’d solidly favor Gold Street.

Shashashakemeup not only has but one start on his résumé, that maiden race was restricted to horses that sold for no more than $45,000 at auction. He’s a decent prospect, I think, but Gold Street, after a troubled debut, faced a couple of the better 2-year-olds in Kentucky this fall – Complexifier and Wayne O. Maybe a sloppy track moved Gold Street up in his last-start maiden romp, but hey, folks, take a look at the New Orleans forecast Saturday.