Weekend GamePlan for Dec. 18, 2021: Picks for Fort Lauderdale, Suwannee River, Fifth Avenue

’Twas the week before Christmas and all through the country . . . it was raining.

At every American racing venue hosting stakes racing Saturday there’s a meaningful chance of rain, and at most of them the meteorologists seem certain, which makes for difficult handicapping 48 hours out. Gulfstream Park easily has the best card and there, at least, there’s less than a 50 percent chance of rain. Here’s hoping for a dry one.

Fort Lauderdale

The dirt stakes on this card yielded uninspiring fields, but both turf stakes look much juicier. Space Traveller has drawn very wide in post 12 for the Fort Lauderdale, but I’m hoping that empties his bandwagon to some extent and boosts win odds into the 7-2 range.

At nine furlongs, the run to the turn affords time and space for Tyler Gaffalione to secure decent position, which means getting into the No. 2 path, at worst, even if that requires dropping to the very back of the field into the first bend. They ought to be going a good clip up front, and some real pace, which should be supplied by Analyze It and King Guillermo, can spread this bulky field enough to provide Space Traveller room to drop inside.

Analyze It has the figures to be competitive, but this 6-year-old has been through so much during an injury-plagued career, and my hope is the numbers and the name, Chad Brown, lead to him taking some action. Four-year-old King Guillermo is the front-runner I’d want at a much longer price. King Guillermo has ample raw talent to contend, and his 2-year-old grass form and turf-leaning pedigree say he can be at least as good on grass as dirt. I don’t even mind the modest comeback performance last out, but my concern is that being entered in impossible spots too many times has extinguished King Guillermo’s competitive spark.

Brown’s other runner, L’Imperator, rates a strong win chance. Out of action for a year following his U.S. debut, his only misstep this season came when he raced far too aggressively in the Knickerbocker. Blinkers were removed last time, L’Imperator relaxed better, and he seems set for a top effort, possibly as the favorite.

Space Traveller will beat him with some luck. This horse is winless in three American starts, but in all of them he finished very strongly – especially the Mister D. Stakes, where only Domestic Spending clocked a faster final quarter-mile – and none of those races came over the firmer footing Space Traveller prefers. He got slightly out-quicked (and probably didn’t love the going) in the Keeneland Turf Mile, and I’ll guess this nine-furlong distance fits him better.

Suwannee River

Brendan Walsh trains Space Traveller and sends out a longer-priced horse in the Suwannee River, Keeper of Time, who I’ll take to run down the formidable Shifty She.

Space Traveller and Keeper of Time have worked together on the Palm Meadows grass at least twice since Keeper of Time’s most recent start. The older male handled her in the two work videos I saw, but she held her own in those drills and when Walsh put her with a different mate Dec. 10, she was much the best.

To be fair, Keeper of Time did flatten out in the late stages of the Glen Cove on Oct. 15, but that performance still marked massive improvement upon her previous start. Imported from Ireland after she hit a peak there April 11, Keeper of Time looks like a filly who needed some time to get accustomed to American racing and training. The field’s only 3-year-old has more upside than her rivals, and if Princess Causeway can make Shifty She work just a bit on the front end, Keeper might get there in time.

N.Y. Stallion Stakes – Fifth Avenue

Upon seeing the maiden Yo Cuz entered in a heavily restricted $500,000 stakes, I wondered how often Hall of Famer Bill Mott ran winless 2-year-olds in stakes competition. Not often. It’s happened twice the last five years; Irish Territory finished second in the 2017 With Anticipation, and Outfoxed this past August won a Florida Stallion Series race by more than 13 lengths.

Yo Cuz lost her debut at the start, breaking flat-footed before getting steadied back to a distant last. She made an eye-catching move around the turn and into the stretch, running willingly through kickback and coming between horses like she knew how to race, and lost only to three rivals who got a huge jump on her. She’s come back with a bullet half-mile, and the guess is Yo Cuz can keep up much better than she did in the maiden race.