Weekend GamePlan for Dec. 14, 2019: Picks for Fort Lauderdale Stakes, Harlan's Holiday Stakes, Great White Way Stakes

This mid-December Saturday is filled with statebred-restricted stakes racing. Fair Grounds has Louisiana Champions Day, which has some playable races, while Aqueduct hosts a division of the New York Stallion Stakes we’ll get to shortly. Tampa put forth a pair of restricted races with constricted fields.

That leaves Gulfstream Park as the Saturday hub of North American stakes action with five open six-figure stakes races, at least three of which have betting appeal and two of which will come under more detailed discussion – right now.

Fort Lauderdale Stakes

There are no real stars here, nor should there be, but this is a strong and deep Grade 2 turf race.

Channel Cat has the race’s highest speed figures and highest-level starts this year, but he’s been on the go since May and is back after a ship to California for a Breeders’ Cup Turf run and will race over a distance likely short of his best. I could see Marzo bouncing back from a disappointing try at Aqueduct last time. Up the Ante probably still is on the upswing. Admission Office always seems to have an excuse.

As so often happens in North American turf racing, this might come down to the Chad Brown barn, and as so often happens in the Chad Brown stable, two apparently live horses contest the same stakes race – Instilled Regard and Flavius. The former finished 2 3/4 lengths ahead of the latter when they met Nov. 9 in a second-level Aqueduct grass allowance, but I’ll side with Flavius here.

Instilled Regard didn’t have an ideal trip last time, but Flavius’s was worse and it came following a 13-month layoff and in his North American debut. Flavius’s early trouble might have taken him farther out of the game than he needs to be, and he didn’t appear especially happy trapped down at the fence when finally clear in upper stretch. The move out to nine furlongs should only help, and with rain in the forecast his wet-turf overseas form could come in handy. Flavius has an encouraging work pattern since the rust-shaking comeback run, and after being overbet last time, he might not quite be accorded all the respect he merits this start.

Harlan’s Holiday Stakes

Prince Lucky looms the likely favorite in the Harlan’s Holiday. He won both his local starts last winter, faced Maximum Security and others in a solid Bold Ruler last time, and, big picture, has a speed-figure edge. But Prince Lucky’s whole move to a new performance echelon last winter coincided with one-turn racing, and he’s started around one bend his last seven outs. While there’s a good chance Prince Lucky gets this two-turn, 1 1/16-mile trip under the right circumstances, these don’t seem like the right ones. He’s drawn on the rail inside a host of other serious pace players.

Maybe Bodexpress proves the speed of the speed and turns this into a merry-go-round affair – not uncommon over the Gulfstream main track. But even if he outsprints Prince Lucky to the front, can he get clear of Flowers for Lisa?

Phat Man gets my vote to post a mild upset. Phat Man won’t be on the pace, but he doesn’t have to fall too far behind it, generally an asset on the Gulfstream main track. His company lines from a productive span last season at Fair Grounds over distances similar to this include a second-place finish to the excellent Tom’s d’Etat and a third behind solid graded-stakes performer Silver Dust. Phat Man had changed connections when he showed up in August following a four-month break. He probably needed his return run, a decent-enough second behind the capable Cordmaker, and second time out beat capable No Dozing at Monmouth. The distant Parx fifth behind Spun to Run looked better after that horse won the BC Dirt Mile and was second in the Cigar Mile, and Phat Man’s Tampa work pattern suggests he comes into this sharp enough to make a dent at a price.

Great White Way N.Y. Stallion Stakes

I don’t like debut winners who close from well behind the early pace and I don’t like debut winners coming out of a wet-track victory. Giant Shoes won first out with a big late run on a sloppy track – yet I do like him in this division of the New York Stallion Stakes.

Start with the forecast, which calls for a 90 percent chance of rain Saturday, which could bring about conditions similar to what Giant Shoes encountered first time out. Halfway through that start he seemed to be running in place, but Giant Shoes really stretched out promisingly (pro lead change, too) after finding stride past the three-furlong pole. He’s come back with a snappy work and there is a surplus of early pace here, led by likely chalk Dream Bigger, who is no cinch to stay the trip.