Weekend GamePlan for August 6, 2022: Picks for Whitney, Glens Falls, California Dreamin'
Here sits the best Saturday of racing since Belmont Stakes Day, June 11. Apologies to the West Virginia Derby card and competitive stakes at Laurel Park, but Saratoga and Del Mar get all the love.
Whitney
The Whitney is absolutely fascinating. To me, there’s a Big 3 here, but a fourth, Americanrevolution, can’t entirely be discounted in his third start this form cycle. What an unsual horse. His long, odd stride belies the speed at which he’s moving, but I don’t think he’ll move fast enough to win the Whitney.
Hot Rod Charlie might, and he’s being undervalued coming into this. Go back to his Belmont Stakes: Horses don’t run 22.78 for the opening quarter-mile of the Belmont and get their sixth quarter-mile faster than their fifth. Hot Rod Charlie did, and only the champion 3-year-old of 2021 beat him.
I’m not sure any horse in the Dubai World Cup hated the racing surface that night more than Hot Rod Charlie, who looked three furlongs out more likely to finish eighth than second, though place he somehow did. The last-out Monmouth loss means little, connections merely priming their horse for this spot.
I take seriously trainer Doug O’Neill’s statements about not letting Life Is Good shake loose on the lead. Hot Rod Charlie adds blinkers and can show a lot of speed when asked – I think he’ll be asked.
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Hot Rod Charlie is a very good horse. Life Is Good is a freak. He may or may not get 1 1/4 miles in the end, but the plowed field over which he ran in the Dubai World Cup voided Life Is Good’s strength, his brilliance. The colt trained into the World Cup as well as a horse can train, and video of his recent Saratoga works is breathtaking. Life Is Good gallops out about as fast as he breezes to the wire, and those gallops-out go on forever. He’ll be a formidable favorite.
All that praise and I’ll bet againt Life Is Good with Olympiad.
Olympiad has raced steadily since September. In different hands, he might be ready for a break, but for Bill Mott he improves with every start. The colt always has possessed speed, but Mott has focused on teaching him to relax. Olympiad has proven a willing pupil. He is very kind both working and racing, and if Hot Rod Charlie really wants to push tempo, Olympiad will sit a great trip in third.
He turned back Americanrevolution after pressing a strong pace in the Stephen Foster and was going away at the wire, something still in the tank. Olympiad has grown into a bear of a horse, his sheer physicality on display in his recent works. I think he’ll win this awesome Whitney.
Glens Falls
War Like Goddess likely was the best horse in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf last fall. She’s incredible. I’m a huge fan. But the mare missed an intended June start after tying up in the morning. Certainly, the Mott barn feels comfortable the issue has been resolved – but, to me, it’s still a chink in the armor.
War Like Goddess’s July 15 turf work, to these eyes, was not the same as her turf work before she won the 2021 Glens Falls. Nearly everyone will presume she’s coming right back into form here, and I’m willing to zag.
Mott’s second entrant Petricor appeals at the expected price. She was much too far behind a slow pace racing over the troubled Churchill Downs turf course two back, and last out at Laurel she had a horror trip – no chance.
On pedigree, Petricor is going to love stretching out to 1 1/2 miles; she hails from an excellent, long-winded Juddmonte family. Her French form hints at the outline of a very high-class horse, and I wonder if Petricor can’t be a little forward in a paceless race. Rain would not hurt her chances, either.
California Dreamin’
It might look like Carmelita’s Man is coming back from a layoff, since he hasn’t started since May 28, but the gelding was back on the work tab June 18 and has since kept to a steady pattern. It seems this Cal-bred turf stakes has been the aim all along, and if Carmelita’s Man maintains the excellent form he hit this spring, he’ll have a great chance.
There’s ample speed in this bulky field, and this gelding can save ground racing from the second flight and get first run on the deep closers. He came to hand at Santa Anita but appears to travel well enough over the Del Mar turf, too.