Weekend GamePlan for Aug. 28, 2021: Picks for H. Allen Jerkens, Sword Dancer, Pat O'Brien
The headliner on the Travers Day card at Saratoga brings its own parcel of intrigue. Essential Quality has run exactly one truly impressive race all year, the Belmont. Midnight Bourbon, who could control the pace from the rail, tempted, but Essential Quality does just as much as is required and probably just wins again.
Harvey’s Lil Goil or Bonny South to upset the Personal Ensign was the other thought that didn’t quite make the final cut; As Time Goes By and/or Swiss Skydiver could take it early to mighty Letruska, who got a soft trip last out.
H. Allen Jerkens
Some horses, even to the jaded veteran turf writer, still stir the heart, and Jackie’s Warrior is such an animal. What made him so appealing as a 2-year-old was his rare combination of speed and sense, his willingness to partner with the human on his back rather than run on pure instinct. Watching how the colt trains and acts around the barn – sheer class. Yet from a betting perspective, now is the time to beat Jackie’s Warrior.
His breathtaking Amsterdam performance got a sloppy-track enhancement, and after Jackie’s Warrior put Drain the Clock away there was no one to challenge him. Now he is drawn inside the very formidable speed of Life Is Good, who has led at every call in his three-start career and was the fastest member of his class before injury derailed his campaign.
Can Life Is Good outduel Jackie’s Warrior and go on with it? Doubtful. And waiting just behind the top pair – Following Sea, the value in the Jerkens.
Following Sea was not coming close to winning the Haskell, but he was going to come a lot closer before having to dodge the Hot Rod Charlie/Midnight Bourbon debacle. In any case, his candidacy as a colt so good that he could make his two-turn debut in a race that strong seemed suspect. And now he is back to what might be his ideal trip, seven furlongs around one turn. The trip might stretch Jackie’s Warrior, who seemingly excels at six furlongs, and Following Sea, from the look of his post-Haskell workouts, has continued to thrive. Off that Belmont win in June, his first start for Pletcher, he’s fast enough to capitalize if the race shapes in his favor.
Sword Dancer
Of this I feel certain: Gufo is meant to be a mile-and-a-half horse.
Less certain: That the physical characteristics that could make him the best 1 1/2-mile grass horse in North America can shine through his psychological problems.
Gufo can take forever to get going, which is why he didn’t catch Tribhuvan – the Sword Dancer favorite – for second in the Manhattan. And the addition of blinkers for his latest start, the Grand Couturier, didn’t clearly cure that ill. Also, he has developed a habit of wandering through the homestretch. It’s almost as though the older and more experienced this colt gets, the more impediments he creates for himself.
Moretti, who I don’t particularly like, holds a key to the Sword Dancer. Channel Maker just isn’t fast enough to run with the formidable Tribhuvan, but turf debuting Moretti is. Gufo just needs a touch of pace help – and a race where his physical tools, rather than his brain, rule the day – and he can win the Sword Dancer.
Pat O’Brien
Flagstaff’s spring wins over Lexitonian and Special Reserve have aged well, since those horses ran one-two in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt, but I can’t shake the notion that his herd-animal instincts always will make him untrustworthy as a win proposition.
C Z Rocket ran well enough last out in the Bing Crosby, yet the performance still suggested he’s a better horse on Lasix. No Lasix also is something to consider for two sharp recent Del Mar allowance winners, Ginobili and Howbeit, as well as Brickyard Ride, whose lone start at this seven-furlong trip was excellent.
Eight Rings is the play here. Keep in mind this colt hit a 94 Beyer Speed Figure – at Del Mar, too – making his career debut as a 2-year-old. For the first time since age 2, he is putting together two races without a break, and video of his workouts since an encouraging Bing Crosby run suggest Baffert still has him right. I suspect he’s in for a favorable stalking trip at the right price, and seven furlongs will be better for Eight Rings than six.