Weekend GamePlan for Aug. 27, 2022: Picks for Travers, Sword Dancer, H. Allen Jerkens
Technical Analysis probably wins the Ballston Spa as an odds-on favorite, and Jackie’s Warrior is a universal cinch in the Forego, but the rest of the Saratoga stakes slate doesn’t have to chalk out. Search Results can be included in your Personal Ensign plans, even if she wasn’t quite included in this Weekend GamePlan.
Travers
I don’t think contention runs especially deep in this Travers. Rich Strike will go down as an eternally baffling Derby winner. Ain’t Life Grand has no path to victory. The connections of Gilded Age would heartily celebrate third.
Early Voting showed regression, not progress, in the Jim Dandy, and his Chad Brown-trained stablemates, Zandon and Artorius, hold more appeal. Artorius impressed in the Curlin, but that third start peak came with a perfect trip. I can’t see him making the necessary jump to truly contend. It’s crazy that Zandon in the Jim Dandy raced in front of Epicenter, and I don’t think that race’s dynamics worked in Zandon’s favor. I could see his camp using the race more as a pure prep than Epicenter’s, and this might be the time to play Zandon. Personally, I didn’t love either of two recent works available on video, and Zandon doesn’t quite seem to have filled into his narrow frame yet.
Epicenter’s frame is anything but narrow. His evolution from a pace player who got beat in the Lecomte because he went too fast, to a horse capable of a last-to-first rally into the slow Jim Dandy tempo has been remarkable. He can be ridden closer Saturday if connections so desire, and Epicenter is formidable.
Still, I’ll play Cyberknife, whose development might even exceed Epicenter’s. Cyberknife in his early races either was incapable or unwilling to grasp being a professional racehorse. He refused to run straight and declined to put forth the full breadth of his ability, running with rather than past his rivals.
Even in the Matt Winn, Cyberknife didn’t want to leave behind Howling Time, his inferior. That’s what made his Haskell such a breakthrough. If Cyberknife got a good trip it was because he made his own luck, moving with turf-like acceleration into the spot Taiba vacated before the far turn. Cyberknife’s stretch run was exceedingly athletic.
While Taiba came to the furlong grounds in the clear with a full head of steam, Cyberknife had ducked to the rail and accelerated a second time, coming through a hole with supreme confidence. Of all the Travers breeze videos online, Cyberknife’s work to me has been the strongest. His gallop-out on Aug. 20 was tremendous, and the colt’s willingness now to race inside and ability to make multiple moves serves him well from post 1.
Sword Dancer
I hadn’t realized before doing replay work how similar Broome’s trip in the Breeders’ Cup Turf was to War Like Goddess’s in the BC Filly and Mare Turf – both horses were moved prematurely, ran the turn brilliantly, and were narrowly beaten on the trip.
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It was no coincidence Broome ran so well in his lone start around three turns in the BC Turf. Rain on Friday night or not, the Saratoga course will suit Broome, who won a pace duel with Irish Derby winner Westover last out in the King George but had nothing late for romping winner Pyledriver. Broome has been ridden to lead his last two starts, which means he can take up a good position Saturday – and take the measure of American grass horses more than a cut below what he’s been facing.
H. Allen Jerkens
Video of Jack Christopher’s workouts since he gamely tried to stay nine furlongs in the Haskell strongly suggest he will bounce back to form shortening up to his preferred trip. Still, Jack Christopher comes into this a touch overrated, his lack of real competition and a perfect trip in the Woody Stephens producing an inflated victory.
The Amsterdam top two, Gunite and Accretive are fine, and Conagher is fast, but I like Actuator.
Actuator raced greenly in the Indiana Derby while moving from a maiden win to a Grade 3 and making his two-turn dirt debut, and not only did he still win, Actuator won with plenty in the tank, if you carefully watch his rider the final half-furlong. That race’s runner-up, Best Actor, easily was best Monday in the Smarty Jones, and Actuator’s win two back at this seven-furlong distance was faster and more visually impressive than his Indiana Derby.
He cuts back in trip off what looks like a strong brace of workouts and will be the right price to take a shot in the Jerkens.