Weekend GamePlan for Aug. 21, 2021: Del Mar Oaks, Del Mar Mile, Pacific Classic
A solid summer Saturday across North America.
Plenty of good stuff at Saratoga, though the forecast is dicey. Considered pushing Ego Trip to take down perfect-trip winner Technical Analysis, but though Ego Trip can stay closer than she did last time, a lack of pace clouds this picture. Haven’t fully gotten over my Clairiere crush. She has some potential excuses from her last two and would probably thrive at a strongly run mile and a quarter.
At Monmouth, we’ll see what Code of Honor has left; the two workout videos available looked promising.
For all three races under fuller discussion, on to Del Mar.
Del Mar Oaks
Leading with this one after really going down a rabbit hole looking at the race. First, it’s pretty much paceless. Javanica has only led in one of her nine starts but it was the most recent and she won, and if you watch subsequent workout video, the way she’s breaking off – Fast! Pulling! – suggests she’s the pacesetter again here. The narrow NoCal loss to the colt who would win the Preakness looks good, but also don’t think Javanica was going anywhere especially fast when fouled in the Senorita. A wire job isn’t impossible; think she gets caught.
Between the two likely shortest prices, Going Global and Madone, Going Global is solidly preferred. Madone got a clean outside run while Going Global lacked clear passage on the inside when Madone beat her in the San Clemente. Also, Going Global had three graded-stakes wins coming into the race, and returning from a two-month break, with this Grade 1 on the horizon, it stands to reason connections used the San Clemente as a prep. Going Global is much handier than Madone; both Madone and Fluffy Socks will be compromised by a pace void.
Fluffy Socks came to Del Mar and won the Durante last fall and is a meaningfully better filly now. She exits a career best in the Lake George but like Madone cannot make her own race.
Closing Remarks is my play. Goodness, does this filly have strong, contending form obscured by bad racing luck. The “lacked room” comment from the Durante lacks proper force: “blocked,” “totally stymied,” “wrapped up final furlong” seem better. To be fair, the filly at the time still was in the early stage of her development.
When Going Global beat her in the China Doll, Going Global, like Madone in the San Clemente, got the clean outside trip while Closing Remarks had to squirm around in tight quarters. The early trouble in the Providencia wasn’t all that serious, but Closing Remarks, after Going Global again got first run, gained on her along the inside to the wire. The trouble in the Senorita, however, cost Closing Remarks all chance.
Then came a freshening, and Closing Remarks’s comeback run going seven furlongs on dirt looked very encouraging while also sharpening the filly to tuck into the pocket right behind Javanica on Saturday. The rider struggled to pull Closing Remarks up at the end of her most recent workout and with some overdue good fortune Closing Remarks can post the upset.
Del Mar Mile
Here’s hoping Mo Forza and his major reputation take some serious action in the Del Mar Mile, his first start since October, because I don’t believe he is beating Smooth Like Strait here.
We tend to overvalue winning and undervalue horses such as Smooth Like Strait, horses that run “A” races and lose. This guy is a miler at heart yet has pushed himself to two very strong nine-furlong performances this season, the one at Churchill coming despite a slipped saddle.
If Neptune’s Storm wants to lead, more power to him – Smooth Like Strait and Umberto Rispoli will use him as a target. If he sits back a bit, Smooth Like Strait can let it rip up front. Hit the Road, who beat Smooth Like Strait in the spring, is back here, but this is Strait’s day.
Pacific Classic
Didn’t expect to be using the biggest race on Saturday, but the more I looked, the more I liked Express Train.
Believe the general assumption will be Royal Ship, who beat him going this 10-furlong trip in the Gold Cup, reverses the form of the San Diego Handicap. But Express Train wasn’t at his best in the Gold Cup, failing to show his customary speed. He stands as good a chance as Royal Ship does of improving on the day, and Express Train is a bona fide Del Mar lover.