Weekend GamePlan for Aug. 1, 2020: Picks for H. Allen Jerkens, Caress, Monmouth Oaks

You know, Tom’s d’Etat was all set to win the Woodward Stakes in 2017 when he was injured days before and taken out of racing action for 15 months. Last year, back at Saratoga, he made the Woodward, only to endure a tough trip that might have cost him victory. That Tom’s d’Etat was not the Tom’s d’Etat coming into the Whitney Stakes on Saturday. This version, the 7-year-old one, is better.

I believe Tom’s d’Etat is the best older dirt horse in North America right now – but I’m not willing to put my money where my mouth is at odds close to Tom’s d’Etat’s 6-5 morning line, which seems reasonable. It won’t surprise me if Tom wins the Whitney by two lengths, but Improbable and Code of Honor are too close to him for me to eat the short price.

Improbable lost loads of ground when Tom beat him at Oaklawn this spring. He’s coming into this race in peak form and is one of the most underrated top-level horses going. Code of Honor appears to have been aimed at this race from the start of his campaign by his Hall of Fame trainer, and while he rode a bias to his Travers score, I’m not taking that performance lightly. Even By My Standards, thumped by Tom in the Stephen Foster, has upside.

The price is even worse on Honor A. P. in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar, which also hosts an inscrutable renewal of the Bing Crosby. Honor A. P. rates, for me, just above Tiz the Law in the Kentucky Derby pecking order, but we might not learn much new about California’s leading 3-year-old Saturday.

:: Click to learn about our DRF's Free Past Performance program.

H. Allen Jerkens

I considered two longer prices in the Allen Jerkens – Tap It to Win, who might not be all that much of a price, after all, and Eight Rings. Eight Rings has never run back to his career debut, but inherent talent seems not to be an issue and he’s a forgotten horse. Drawing inside the other speed, however, seems exactly the wrong scenario for Eight Rings to show his best self.

As for Tap It to Win, he probably just bounced in the Belmont, and his against-the-bias Saratoga win last season was excellent. Maybe I’m putting too much stock into it, but his recent Saratoga work left me cold, and I wonder if he is coming right back to his peak in the Jerkens.

The field is large enough that a fair price might be available on No Parole, who is set to repeat his Woody Stephens triumph from last month. There were rumblings that the Belmont main track favored speed on Belmont Stakes Day. Granted, a paucity of dirt races limits the evidence, but I can find little suggesting bias truly influenced outcome. No Parole has the best speed in the Jerkens, but I don’t buy he’s a need-the-lead type. Post 1 dictated tactics his last two starts, and I think he can sit outside another horse and not lose effectiveness.

He failed to change leads in the Stephens but did so promptly in previous starts and in a recent blazing Saratoga work that was more than one second quicker than the next-fastest drill at the distance. No Parole didn’t even look like he was going fast, and even eight months into this form cycle, he looks like a more robust specimen than we saw at Oaklawn this spring.

Caress

Could it be Al Stall Jr. day at the Spa? Possible, because in addition to Tom, Stall sends out Dalika in the Caress, and despite her deep-closing running style, I really like her. Stall’s key move with Dalika was cutting her back to turf sprints this year. At Churchill, she rallied into a slow pace and won about as easily as a horse can win, and her official final furlong in a near miss last out at Belmont (a race run in a monsoon) was 11.11 seconds. Her recent Saratoga turf work was spectacular, and here’s hoping Joel Rosario doesn’t let Dalika completely fall out the back door early.

Monmouth Oaks

The morning line for Monmouth’s Oaks looks shaky (e.g. Eve of War seems lower than a 10-1 shot), which is understandable, since this is a dense thicket of form, but I’m pretty sure Market Rumor will offer square win odds. This is a classic slow-development pattern from trainer Ian Wilkes, and it’s no coincidence this filly’s peak last out came in her first two-turn start. I believe she’s got another level yet to find and is going to get a very favorable setup, and while Wilkes hasn’t won with a maiden-to-graded-stakes starter the last five years, he’s finished second with price shots several times.